Carmona outperformed other Dems

by David Safier

The Capitol Times (subscription only) analysed the vote data in the Flake-Carmona senatorial race and found that Carmona did better than a generic Democrat could be expected to do. He actually won a number of Republican-majority areas.

Carmona defeated Flake, a six-term East Valley congressman, in competitive-but-Republican-leaning precincts across the state. In the Ahwatukee-based Windmere precinct, where Republicans have an 9-point registration edge over Democrats, Carmona beat Flake by more than six percentage points, based on 2-way registration figures and head-to-head performance. In south Scottsdale’s Pueblo precinct, which has a 4.6 percent GOP registration edge, Carmona won more than 54 percent of the vote.

Not only that, he did better than Barber in CD-2 and Sinema in CD-9. That's quite a showing for a first time candidate against Flake, a well-known politician.

If Carmona runs for governor, he'll be able to pick up where he left off, with statewide face-and-name recognition and a base of people who voted for him two years earlier. Will that be enough to beat Ken Bennett or some Republican candidate to be named later? No telling, but it sure gives Carmona a leg up over any other Democrat in the state.

0 responses to “Carmona outperformed other Dems

  1. Francine Shacter

    I wept when Carmona did not win – but if he wants to run for governor he has to decide and get in quickly. Fred Duval, who has lots of name recognition and assorted creds, has declared and is RUNNING! A divisive primary would only benefit the Republicans. So, if Carmona wants to run, he’s got to get with it NOW and both Duval and Carmona have to take a very high road in the primary or the Democratic candidate will go into the general against a Republican with a serious handicap!

  2. You have to factor turnout rates in midterms, which tend to favor Republicans since turnout among young and minority voters tends to drop off. Then there’s the problem of the media here confusing amiability with moderation. They will give Bennett a pass on his right wing views just as they did Flake.