Category Archives: Polling

Latest on Trump-Putin campaign investigations

The always insecure egomaniacal Twitter-troll-in-chief Donald J. Trump publicly insists that he has no ties to Russia (while refusing to release his tax records and business records for public scrutiny which likely demonstrate otherwise).

You’re always  asking me about the Russians. I don’t know nothin’ about no Russians!

We know this is bullshit, as David Leonhardt reminds us at the New York Times. Trump’s Russia Motives:

The mystery at the core of the Trump-Russia story is motive.

President Trump certainly seems to have a strange case of Russophilia. He has surrounded himself with aides who have Russian ties. Those aides were talking to Russian agents during the campaign, and some are now pushing a dubious peace deal in Ukraine. Trump recently went so far as to equate the United States and Vladimir Putin’s murderous regime.

But why?

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Mr. Unpopular: ‘the polls are rigged!’

Donald Trump lost the popular vote by more than 2.8 million votes. “Mr. Unpopular,” Donald Trump, will enter office as the most unpopular of at least the last seven newly elected presidents, according to a new ABC News/Washington Post poll. Trump to Enter Office as Most Unpopular President in at Least 40 Years, Poll Finds:

TrumpCrybabyForty percent of Americans in the national survey approve of the way Trump has handled the transition, only half as many as the 80 percent who approved of Barack Obama’s preparations to take office. Trump also trails far behind George W. Bush (72 percent transition approval), Bill Clinton (81 percent) and George H.W. Bush (82 percent) on this measure.

Similarly, just 40 percent in this poll, produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates, approve of most of Trump’s Cabinet choices, trailing his four most recent predecessors by 19 to 26 percentage points.

Also, only 40 percent see Trump favorably overall. That’s 21 points behind Obama’s departing favorability rating (his best since November 2009) and by far the lowest popularity for an incoming president in polling since 1977. Previous start-of-presidency favorability ratings have ranged from 56 percent for George W. Bush to 79 percent for Obama.

These results are consistent with a new CNN poll, which found Trump with a 40% approval rating, “the lowest of any recent president.” CNN/ORC Poll: Confidence drops in Trump transition:

Donald Trump will become president Friday with an approval rating of just 40%, according to a new CNN/ORC Poll, the lowest of any recent president and 44 points below that of President Barack Obama, the 44th president.

Following a tumultuous transition period, approval ratings for Trump’s handling of the transition are more than 20 points below those for any of his three most recent predecessors. Obama took the oath in 2009 with an 84% approval rating, 67% approved of Clinton’s transition as of late December 1992 and 61% approved of George W. Bush’s transition just before he took office in January 2001.

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Still waiting for Governor Ducey’s ‘next step’ after Prop. 123

George Will’s mini-me at the Arizona Republic, Robert Robb, is a polemicist and partisan hack GOP apologist, nothing more. He has spent years doing this for the Arizona Chamber of Commerce and Industry and the Goldwater Institute before joining the Arizona Republic. His Libertarian la-la land economic nonsense has been a great detriment to Arizonans.

education_appleIn a recent op-ed, Robb refers to public education advocates who want more education funding in the state budget as “whining crybabies,” putting words into Governor Ducey’s mouth (reflecting his own partisan views), and then pivots to a defense of Governor Ducey’s “no new taxes ever” pledge. Robb: The State of the State speech Ducey would like to give (but won’t):

The main reason the whining crybabies are on my case, however, is that I won’t agree to raise taxes, particularly for K-12 education.

You want to talk education? Let’s start with history. Recent state political history, to be specific.

In 2014, there was an election for governor. I won.

During the campaign, I opposed any net increase in taxes. In fact, I ran on a platform of a tax cut every year with a goal of getting the income tax as close to zero as possible.

I still believe in getting the income tax as close to zero as possible.

Yet another non sequitur from Robb that has nothing at all to do with sound fiscal policy or education policy. Robb’s only justificiation is pure partisan politics: “I won, suck it!

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New House Speaker J.D. Mesnard strikes out on legislative priorities

education_appleThe overwhelming majority of Arizonans agree that increased funding for public education should be the top legislative priority in the incoming state legislature. Arizonans support higher taxes for education, how about our Governor and Tea-Publican legislature?

The state’s projected $24 million budget surplus (see interview below) is wholly inadequate and well below the amount of restitution that the courts found our lawless Tea-Publican legislature owed to the state’s school districts for its theft of inflation adjusted school funding in previous years — which they used to give away corporate welfare tax cuts.

Even with the sham of Prop. 123 funding, “total aid to education will still be $600 million less than it was in 2009 in real dollars — and $863 million less if inflation is taken into account,” according to Dana Naimark, president of the Children’s Action Alliance. Prop. 123 will do little to restore education funding to K-12 schools.

Governor Doug Ducey’s sham Classrooms First Initiative Council failed to produce any proposals for increased funding for public education. Ducey’s Classrooms First Initiative Council produces bupkis.

Governor Ducey’s State of The State Address in January is likely to simply propose moving pots of money around without increasing tax revenues to pay for increased public education funding (the goal will be to pit interests groups against one another to fight over their slice of the budget pie, not to increase the size of the budget pie).

With this in mind, this AP interview of the new Speaker of the House, Rep. J.D. Mesnard, R-Gilbert, is deeply disturbing.

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Arizonans support higher taxes for education, how about our Governor and Tea-Publican legislature?

A new poll by the public school advocacy group Stand for Children Arizona finds a majority of those surveyed said the state should spend more money on education — and more than half indicated they’d be willing to pay higher taxes to do so. Poll: Arizonans say they’d pay higher taxes for education:

education_appleThe poll sets the groundwork for a legislative conversation on Proposition 301, which currently designates six-tenths of a cent per dollar in sales taxes to education. The tax is set to expire in 2021.

The Legislature convenes its 2017 session Jan. 10, and Gov. Doug Ducey is expected to reveal his agenda for the year in his Jan. 9 State of the State address. Ducey has said education funding will be a priority, but has offered no details.

Moore Information conducted the poll of 500 Arizona voters, doing live cellphone and landline phone interviews Dec. 5-7. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

77 percent indicated the state should spend more money on schools.
61 percent indicated they would support a tax increase to provide additional funding for education.
65 percent indicated they would support increasing the Prop. 301 sales tax, which funds education, to a full penny. That would bring in an estimated $400 million more a year.

“A lot of people thought that after Prop. 123, everyone would be tired of education funding,” said Stand for Children Arizona Executive Director Rebecca Gau. “But across the board, people know we need to be spending more on schools.”

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The power of propaganda in a post-truth America

Donald Trump has been on a “victory tour” falsely telling his rabid supporters that he won a “massive landslide victory.” Donald Trump’s Electoral College victory was not a ‘massive landslide’.

According to the 2016 National Popular Vote Tracker, Hillary Clinton now leads by 2.8 million votes (more than 2.1 percent of the total vote) as states continue to report final results.

And Trump’s Electoral College Victory Ranks 46th in 58 Elections:

Trump won 30 states, gathering 306 of 538 electoral votes. There have been 45 presidential elections in which the winning candidate won a larger share of the electoral vote.

[Trump’s popular vote] deficit gives him the third-worst vote margin among winning candidates since 1824.

GOP_BubbleBut Trump’s self-angrandizing falsehood gets repeated in the Epistemic closure of the ‘conservative misinformation feedback loop’ media bubble, and this is the result: A new poll shows an astonishing 52% of Republicans incorrectly think Trump won the popular vote:

Half of all Republicans actually think Trump won the popular vote.

In a nationally representative online survey of 1,011 Americans conducted by Qualtrics between Dec. 6 and 12, we asked respondents, “In last month’s election, Donald Trump won the majority of votes in the electoral college. Who do you think won the most popular votes?”

Twenty-nine percent said Donald Trump won the popular vote. This is a slightly larger proportion than in a recent Pew survey in which 19 percent said Trump won the popular vote.

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