Census numbers – Arizona’s Legislative and Congressional Districts

By Craig McDermott, cross-posted from Random Musings

All information available at the Census Bureau's American Factfinder page (watch the instructional videos, trust me 🙂 )…

Census numbers for the state's 30 legislative districts –

Geographic area                    Total population

Arizona                                   6,392,017

LD1 (2010)                                 217,022

LD2 (2010)                                 177,904

LD3 (2010)                                 216,687

LD4 (2010)                                 294,239

LD5 (2010)                                 192,258

LD6 (2010)                                 219,170

LD7 (2010)                                 190,272

LD8 (2010)                                 185,419

LD9 (2010)                                 178,499

LD10 (2010)                               163,683

LD11 (2010)                               161,630

LD12 (2010)                               378,298

LD13 (2010)                               207,107

LD14 (2010)                               158,881

LD15 (2010)                               155,897

LD16 (2010)                              247,146

LD17 (2010)                              171,129

LD18 (2010)                              165,729

LD19 (2010)                              195,221

LD20 (2010)                              176,043

LD21 (2010)                              274,260

LD22 (2010)                              297,687

LD23 (2010)                              370,479

LD24 (2010)                              207,694

LD25 (2010)                              208,220

LD26 (2010)                              195,881

LD27 (2010)                              199,340

LD28 (2010)                              170,527

LD29 (2010)                              184,459

LD30 (2010)                              231,236

Average                                   213,067

A map of the current LDs is here.

Most LDs should experience significant changes to their borders, but with many LDs, significant changes are guaranteed because their populations vary significantly from the average, and the new legislative districts have to be pretty much the same size.  There can be a little variation, but it's small.

Looking at the raw numbers of residents in each legislative district, a few things are obvious – LD12 (western Maricopa County), LD21, LD22 (both SE metro Phoenix), and LD23 (mostly Pinal County, but reaching into Maricopa) are going to be split up – they're far too big to continue in anything resembling their current forms.

Also likely to see significant changes are current Phoenix-area LDs 8, 14, 15, 17, 18 and 20 – all have populations significantly below the average of 213K.  The areas covered by those LDs will absorb or be absorbed by other areas.

Tucson-area LDs 26, 28, and 29 are in the same boat as the Phoenix-area LDs above.

Congressional districts –

Geographic area                         Total population

Arizona                                         6,392,017

CD 1                                                 774,310

CD 2                                                 972,839

CD 3                                                 707,919

CD 4                                                 698,314

CD 5                                                 656,833

CD 6                                                 971,733

CD 7                                                 855,769

CD 8                                                 754,300

Current average (for 8 CDs)         799,002

New average (for 9 CDs)              710,224

Map of the current Congressional districts here.

In some ways, tea leaf reading when looking at potential changes to lege districts is easy – there are 30 LDs now, and there will be 30 LDs after redistricting.

Looking at potential changes to Congressional districts is more difficult because there are 8 districts now but there are going to be 9 after redistricting.  Once the new district is carved out (expected to be in the East Valley/Pinal County area or in the West Valley, in the area where the current CDs 2 and 7 meet), there will be a cascade effect of changes to all of the other CDs, and I cannot even begin to predict those changes.

Expect significant changes to all CDs.

More on that as the redistricting process grinds on…

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