Democrats appear to be in a good position after California primary

Ahead of Tuesday’s primaries there was a lot of anxiety about California’s jungle primary could prevent Democrats from taking back the House, but the early returns are cautiously optimistic (there are still many ballots to be counted).

Based upon the current results of the California primary, it appears that there will be a Democrat running in every statewide race, and in almost every congressional district (Democrats appear “locked out” only in the East Desert District 8).

Lieutenant Governor Gavin Newsom, the favorite of the California Democratic Party’s core liberal base, got the matchup he wanted with John Cox, a carpetbagger multimillionaire Republican perennial candidate from Illinois who recently moved to California and hitched himself to the far-right policies of President Trump. The results are a stunning defeat for former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, representing the fall of a politician who embodied the growing power of the Latino electorate when he was elected mayor in 2005. It’s Newsom vs. Cox in November as Villaraigosa tumbles in governor’s race.

The Los Angeles Times editorializes, What the June primary tells us about California’s top-two system:

It’s the day after California’s primary election, and although dawn broke on clear winners in some races — most notably the gubernatorial race, where Democrat Gavin Newsom and Republican John Cox prevailed — others are still up in the air and may remain so for days.

Among the cliffhangers: Will Democratic state Sen. Kevin de León maintain his small edge over Republican James Bradley and face a fellow Democrat, U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein, in November? Will Democrats do well enough in congressional races to make flipping the U.S. House a real possibility? In a few congressional races, it’s not even certain a Democrat will make the cut for the general election. Will a Republican squeak into the runoff for lieutenant governor, or will it be two Democrats competing?

The fact that some races are still too close to call is, at least in part, a function of new rules that allow mail-in ballots to arrive at the registrar’s office up to three days after the election and still be counted. And voting by mail has become increasingly common. This year, about 11.8 million ballots were sent out to voters, and as of Tuesday fewer than 3 million had been returned. That leaves a lot of room for uncertainty.

There’s another thing at play here: unusually competitive races. For that, we can thank two forces: Donald Trump, whose election in 2016 inspired many first-time candidates to seek elective office in order to foil his agenda, and California’s top-two primary system.

The former is a one-time event (at least, we hope it is). The latter, adopted eight years ago, allows voting across party lines in primaries and sends the two highest vote-getters, regardless of party, to duke it out in the November general election.

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The Los Angeles Times supported the top-two system when Proposition 14 was on the ballot in 2010, saying that it was unlikely to be either a miracle cure for political gridlock or the end of democracy as we know it, but a modest step toward getting rid of the worst partisanship. We hoped it would encourage lawmakers to compromise more because successful candidates would have to hold positions that appealed not just to their most fervent party stalwarts, but to voters from a range of parties and ideologies.

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In the end, the vast majority of the races in this primary produced the same outcome as the pre-top-two system: one Democrat and one Republican heading to the general election, albeit without potential third-party spoilers. Nevertheless, after the dust from this election has settled, it would be appropriate to take a closer look at how top-two has fared in its first eight years, particularly as this was the first test of it in an open gubernatorial race. Proposition 14 was passed the same year Jerry Brown was elected for the third time as governor. Will top-two continue to deliver competitive races? Will these produce better candidates? Will partisan gridlock return to the California Legislature? Will a Green candidate ever have a shot at the general election? These are questions worth asking, not just now but after every election.

2 responses to “Democrats appear to be in a good position after California primary

  1. Bill Astle

    Now it behooves those of us who live in LD 11 to be smart with our State House vote. Vote for Holly Lyon and no one else! Using your second vote seems like the democratic thing to do but it only nullifies your vote for Col. Lyon.

  2. Concerned Citizen

    Harvard Report: “Arizona is perceived to be the most corrupt state with legislative and executive branches both scoring 4.”

    Measuring Illegal and Legal Corruption in American States: Some Results from the Corruption in America Survey | Edmond J. Safra Center for Ethics
    https://ethics.harvard.edu/blog/measuring-illegal-and-legal-corruption-american-states-some-results-safra