Democrats favored to win governorships in 2016

Arizona does not have a governor’s race this year (too bad), but 12 other states do. A new round of surveys in states electing governors this November show Democrats poised to pick up seats and gain some ground on Republicans in governors’ mansions. Late polls show Dems gaining in governor races:

“We’re in a map right now where we’re pleased, on a race-by-race basis, at how this looks,” said Jared Leopold, a spokesman for the Democratic Governors Association. “Everyone expected that 2016 would be a difficult cycle for Democrats because we were defending more.”

Screen Shot 2016-10-25 at 2.46.31 PMScreen Shot 2016-10-25 at 2.49.19 PM

A Ball State University poll released Wednesday, conducted for WISH-TV in Indianapolis, shows former Indiana House Speaker John Gregg (D) leading Lt. Gov. Eric Holcomb (R) by a 48 percent to 43 percent margin in the race to replace Republican Gov. Mike Pence, Donald Trump’s running mate.

A Monmouth University poll released last week showed Gregg with a wider 50 percent to 38 percent edge.

In North Carolina, another Republican-led state, three surveys released this week show Attorney General Roy Cooper (D) locked in a tight race with Gov. Pat McCrory (R). Polls conducted by CNN and Survey USA showed Cooper with a narrow lead, while a survey conducted by the conservative Civitas Institute showed McCrory slightly ahead.
McCrory has been in a precarious political position even before a dispute over a measure regulating transgender access to bathrooms earned national attention.

Surveys in two states led by Democrats, Oregon and New Hampshire, show Democrats up by significant margins in gubernatorial races.

A University of New Hampshire poll conducted for WMUR showed Executive Councilor Colin Van Ostern (D) leading fellow Executive Councilor Chris Sununu (R) 44 percent to 38 percent. A MassInc poll conducted for WBUR released last week showed Van Ostern up 47 percent to 44 percent. Current Gov. Maggie Hassan (D) is running for Senate, hoping to boot the vulnerable GOP Sen. Kelly Ayotte.

In Oregon, polls conducted for The Oregonian and Oregon Public Broadcasting show Gov. Kate Brown (D) leading her opponent, little-known physician Bud Pierce (R), by double digits. Republicans had hoped Oregon voters might punish Brown for supporting a ballot measure that would raise corporate tax rates, though the opportunity never materialized.

With two weeks remaining before November’s elections, Republicans’ best opportunity to pick off a Democratic-held seat appears to be in Vermont, where unpopular Gov. Peter Shumlin (D) decided not to seek a fourth two-year term. A Castleton Institute poll conducted for Vermont Public Radio this week, the first poll of the race, showed Lt. Gov. Phil Scott (R) and former state Transportation chief Sue Minter (D) in a statistical tie, with Scott up 39 to 38 percent.

Minter will campaign this weekend with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I), who is wildly popular in his home state. Democrats hope Minter can overcome any drag Shumlin creates on the ticket. Republicans have sought to portray Scott as a New England Republican divorced from the national party’s conservative reputation in a state Hillary Clinton will win by a huge margin.

Democrats are also on defense in Missouri, where Gov. Jay Nixon (D) is term-limited. But Attorney General Chris Koster (D) led retired Navy SEAL Eric Greitens (R) by a 46 percent to 43 percent margin in a Monmouth poll released two weeks ago.

In West Virginia, coal executive Jim Justice (D) leads state Senate Majority Leader Bill Cole (R) by a comfortable margin, according to the first poll of the race.

In Montana, both Democrats and Republicans believe Gov. Steve Bullock (D) is likely to win a second term.

Though governor races tend to be viewed differently by voters than federal races, some Republicans worry that Donald Trump’s increasingly perilous political standing could begin to bleed down ticket, especially in North Carolina and New Hampshire, two presidential swing states.

And Republicans are poised to lose seats in the Senate and the House, making governorships the party’s only likely path to boost their ranks.

* * *

Democrats face a deep minority among the nation’s governors. Republicans currently hold 31 governorships, after notching big gains in 2010 and 2014. Democrats hold only 18. Alaska Gov. Bill Walker is an independent, though he ousted a Republican incumbent two years ago.

Republicans have not held as many governorships since the 1920s, when they controlled 34 state executive offices.

Control of the governor’s mansion matters in the 35 states where a governor plays a role in the redistricting process. In those states, the governor is allowed to veto congressional district lines drawn by state legislatures.

If current leads hold, Democrats could win as many as 10 of the 12 races up for election this year. That would match their best showing in any election cycle since the party was founded, said Eric Ostermeier, a political scientist at the University of Minnesota and author of the Smart Politics blog.

Republicans have been on a winning streak since the 2010 cycle. In the 94 governor’s races since President Obama’s first midterm election, Democrats won just 35 contests, the party’s worst-ever decade for gubernatorial races.

Pro Tip: After election day, a citizens initiative needs to be filed to amend the Arizona Constitution and move Arizona’s statewide elected office races to presidential election years begining in 2020 (and maybe we should reduce the number of  statewide elected offices by eliminating the elective office for state mine inspector and superintendent of public instruction). Put the measure on the 2o18 ballot. It will produce an electorate that is much more competitive and representative than the mid-term drop-off electorate in non-presidential years.

One response to “Democrats favored to win governorships in 2016

  1. But not in Arizona. By their support of Prop 123 the education establishment has pretty much guaranteed Ducey’s reelection.