Allan Lichtman Predicts Joe Biden Will Win

Allan J. Lichtman is a Professor of History at American University.

Professor Allan J. Lichtman, who has correctly predicted the winner of the Presidential Election in nine out of ten elections since 1984, today predicts that Joe Biden will win.

Lichtman employs his “13 Keys to the White House” to conclude that Biden will defeat Trump. Biden is leading in 9 of the keys, while Trump is leading in only 4. The keys indicate a win for Joe Biden.

(The polls show Donald Trump in the lead. However, the polls are imitation facts, and they report results within the margin of error.)

Should Biden run for president in 2024? Absolutely,” he says in a new video on July 8, 2024 (see below). “All of those pundits and journalists and political operatives who are saying Biden should drop out have absolutely no track record in predicting elections,” Lichtman says.

“On the other hand, if Biden simply steps down and you have a big brawl for who to succeed him, because there’s no consensus choice, it’s all over the map. That’s why Biden should stay in.

Kamala Harris unlikely to save the Democrats

“Now, I do have a Plan B. It is possible. There’s tremendous pressure for Biden to step aside. If that pressure forces him to step aside, here’s what he should do. He should resign the presidency for the good of the country.”

“Kamala Harris, who is much younger and has no issue with her mental sharpness, would become President. That would check off the ‘incumbency key,’ and Biden would then release all his delegates to support Harris at the convention to avoid an internal party fight. That would also check off the ‘contest key.’ That is a much preferable plan B, if in fact the spineless Democrats force Biden out of this race.”

Allan Lichtman’s 13 Keys to the White House

The 13 Keys to the White House is a checklist of thirteen true/false statements that pertain to the circumstances surrounding a presidential election. The Keys are:

  1. Midterm gains: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
  2. No primary contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
  3. Incumbent seeking re-election: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
  4. No third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
  5. Strong short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
  6. Strong long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
  7. Major policy change: The incumbent administration affects major changes in national policy.
  8. No social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
  9. No scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandals.
  10. No foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
  11. Major foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves major success in foreign or military affairs.
  12. Charismatic incumbent: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
  13. Uncharismatic challenger: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

Here is how the keys look in Lichtman’s assessment. Biden is leading in 9 while Trump is leading 4. The keys indicate a win for Joe Biden.

KeyStatusWho is leading?
Party MandateAgainst BidenTrump
Primary ContestIn Favor of BidenBiden
IncumbencyIn Favor of BidenBiden
Third partyUncertainLeans Biden
Short-term economyIn Favor of BidenBiden
Long-term economyIn Favor of BidenBiden
Policy changeIn Favor of BidenBiden
Social unrestIn Favor of BidenLeans Biden
ScandalIn Favor of BidenBiden
Foreign/military failureAgainst BidenTrump
Foreign/military successAgainst BidenTrump
Incumbent charismaAgainst BidenTrump
Challenger charismaIn Favor of BidenBiden
As per the latest update, 9 of the 13 keys favor Biden. Therefore, Allan Lichtman’s prediction for the upcoming general election is in favor of the incumbent Joe Biden.

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1 thought on “Allan Lichtman Predicts Joe Biden Will Win”

  1. I’ve always respected Dr. Lichtman and his methodology for predicting presidential winners. I appreciate his clear-eyed, science-based approach to parsing the hyper-partisan noise surrounding candidates down to understandable “keys” (his terminology.) His keys have always made eminent sense to someone who did a graduate program in behavioral science, trying to understand human behavior. In fact, if the 2000 election hadn’t been stolen by Bush and the Republicans, Dr. Lichtman would have a perfect 10/10 record. I hope 2024 proves, once again, that Dr. Lichtman’s keys are the key to understanding how humans select presidents.


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