‘Survivor – GOP Presidential Primary’ : Post-Florida

Posted by AzBlueMeanie:

Willard "Mittens" Romney has used his substantial financial resources to try to score a knock-out punch in the Florida primary on Tuesday. He has outspent Newt Gingrich by some estimates 5-1 in Florida. If polling coming out of Florida can be believed, Mittens should score an easy win in Florida on Tuesday.

The corporate media villagers and Beltway bloviators will all sing from the GOP establishment hymnal Tuesday night that this is a "knock-out punch" for Mittens. But is it really?

Florida is a diverse state with several expensive media markets. Advantage Romney. But upcoming GOP primary/caucus states are less diverse than Florida (more solidly conservative), and have far less expensive media markets. The Not-the-Romney candidate(s) may be able to afford a competitive "air war" with Romney.

Moreover, despite a win in Florida by Romney he still trails Gingrich in national polling. Real Clear Politics polling average. (click for larger image).

Rick "man on dog" Santorum is out of money and out of momentum. His daughter's recent illness may give him a convenient excuse to vote himself off the island after Tuesday. That would clear the field and make it a two man race. Santorum supporters are far more likely to jump to Gingrich than to Romney.

In the NBC/WSJ poll last week Romney’s unfavorability rating among independents spiked 20 points in the last two months. The poll found that among all Americans, Romney is rated very or somewhat positively by only 31 percent, while he’s rated very or somewhat negatively by 36 percent. He's upside down in negative numbers and spiking. The more the public sees Mittens the more they dislike him — and its only January.

The GOP establishment's biggest problem is that Tea-Publicans still long for someone else. In a Pew poll today, a majority of Tea-Publicans are more dissatisfied with their candidates today than at the beginning of the primary process. In fact, Mittens and Newt are upside down in negative numbers among Tea-Publican leaning voters.

Republicans would love to hit the reset button and start over, but even if there was a "savior" waiting in the wings, it's too late. And a brokered convention is only a very remote possibility under the GOP primary rules.

The weakest field of presidential candidates in either political party in decades is the result of the undue influence of conservative media, i.e., hate radio and FAUX News Fraudcasting. The closed-loop alternate reality that conservative media has created makes any Tea-Publican candidate completely out of touch with the majority of average Americans who do not share their extremist ideology.

A song once said that "video killed the (radio) DJ." It may be that conservative media killed the GOP in 2012.