A closer look at the 2011 NAEP scores

by David Safier

I don't put too much stock in any standardized test results, but if there's one test worth looking at, it's the NAEP. It really can't be gamed or taught to, and its results are consistent enough that you can say, it's an accurate measure of what they're testing. Whether it's testing the right things . . . well, that's a whole nuther question.

The big news is, Arizona's 4th grade math scores showed a 5 point rise in 2011 compared to 2009. That's the biggest bump in the nation. That's good news. But as usual, it's news that needs to be put into context.

First, we're still 43rd in the nation in 4th grade math, which is nothing to brag about. Still, improvement is good.

Second, Arizona's 4th grade math scores went down two points in 2009, so the 2011 scores are only a 3 point rise over 2007, as you can see on the chart at right. When you look at Arizona's scores compared to the national average, the slopes are more-or-less the same except for 2009. So actually, the overall Arizona trend is the same as the nation's.

Let's get even deeper in the weeds, shall we? If we break down the change in scores from 2009 to 2011 by ethnic group, we find the majority of the 4th grade math increase was accomplished by Hispanics. Scores of white 4th graders went up 3 points. Hispanic 4th grade scores went up 6 points.

That could mean a few things. One possibility is, we've improved the way we're educating Hispanic students, which would be great. However, another very distinct possibility is, SB1070 drove some families with undocumented members out of state. Since those children would likely be on the low end of the Hispanic achievement scale on average, Arizona's 4th grade Hispanic population may have changed sufficently since 2009 to account for the big bump in scores.

These factors put Arizona's cheerleading about our recent NAEP scores in context. If you hear conservatives crowing about how our schools did more with less, it's very likely not true.

BONUS FEATURE: FLORIDA NAEP SCORES: Since Arizona is trying its best to emulate the "Florida Education Miracle," it's interesting to look at their 2011 reading scores, since that's the score you hear most about. Florida's 4th grade reading scores leveled out this year, even taking an insignificant 1 point dip from 2009. But national scores leveled out too, so Florida's 4th grade scores are no better or worse than the national average. But Florida's 8th grade reading scores took a 2 point dip and look like they're trending in the opposite direction of the nation's. Proponents of Florida's "reforms" rarely talk about 8th grade scores for exactly this reason. The 4th grade reading bump was largely because Florida began holding 3rd graders back (Analogy: If you hold some third graders back a year, the next year's 4th graders will be taller on average — because some 4th graders will be older, and taller). But the bump has never shown results by the 8th grade, which means there haven't been lasting effects. So much for the much-vaunted "Florida Education Miracle."