Dalessandro a Democratic Pickup in LD-30?

by David Safier

LD-30 has been a pretty safe Republican district, until now. Andrea Dalessandro, the lone Democrat running for State House, has a fighting chance of taking one of the two seats. Even loyal Republican consultant Nathan Sproul lists LD-30 as vulnerable to a Democratic pickup.

Republicans outnumber Democrats by a large margin in the District, but it’s possible things could break well for Dalessandro. Here’s her winning formula.

1. Campaign, Campaign, Campaign. Dalessandro’s got that covered. She never stops.
2. Convince Democrats and like-minded Independents to “single shot” — vote only for her instead of casting two House votes. That’s a very distinct possibility, given the ultra-conservative credentials of David Gowan and the pretty-darn-conservative credentials of Frank Antenori.
3. Get some split votes from moderate Independents and Republicans. That’s possible as well. David Gowan is one of the stable of ultra-right wing candidates consultant Constantin Querard is running statewide. They do very well in the low-turnout primaries where the “crazy base,” as Jon Stewart calls it, comes out in droves and knocks out the more moderate Republicans. But in the general where the turnout is higher, especially in a presidential year, the more mainstream Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents balk at voting for the crazy-base candidates. Gowan has skipped a few public forums lately, which can scare away votes that would otherwise come his way. So Dalessandro could benefit from voters who will choose Republican Antenori, then balance that out with a Democratic pick rather than Gowan.
4. Have other Republicans split their vote by single shotting. Also a distinct possibility. Lots of Gowan’s purist supporters will vote only for him, writing Antenori off as not doctrinaire conservative enough. Antenori supporters could be turned off by Gowan because he’s too right wing. That would lower the tally for both candidates, allowing Dallesandro to beat the one with the lower vote total.

Add the fact that this looks like a Democratic year, with energized Democrats and listless Republicans — even McCain isn’t generating much heat in his home state — and Dalessandro could win with a strong second place or maybe even end up with the highest vote total of the three.