by David Safier
I don't know if Vic Williams is a drinking man, but if he is, he may be knocking back an extra shot or two over a single-shot/double-shot scenario that could have him coming in third behind Nancy Young Wright and Terri Proud in LD-26.
Here's how that could happen.
Nancy Young Wright has lots of supporters who are only planning to vote for her. Vic's occasional non-wingnut stands in the legislature certainly aren't enough to earn him votes from serious Democrats or from Independents who put education at the top of their list of priorities.
Terri Proud has the Tea Party wing of the Republican Party sewn up. They're likely to vote for her and her alone because Williams isn't pure enough for their tastes. Anyone who isn't full bore, gonzo right wing doesn't pass their litmus test. Besides, they never liked or trusted Vic, not from day one.
But how many single shot voters does Vic have? Probably not many. His constant attempts to please everyone — or not displease anyone too much — haven't earned him a Vic Williams Fan Club like the other two candidates have. He's more likely to get the double shot, Nancy-and-Vic or Terri-and-Vic voters.
So, Nancy and Terri each pile up a bunch of votes from single shotters. Then each of them get a bunch more votes from double shotters. And Vic only gets the votes he splits with the other two. That scenario could put a world of hurt on Vic's chances to retain his House seat.
In the final weeks of the campaign, Vic is trying to ally himself with the far right Proud and Melvin, something he has avoided doing until now. They've put out a "The three of us" mailer with all of them looking like the best of friends, and they've taken to showing up at churches together on Sundays. Is this Vic's attempt to get more of Terri's voters to bubble him in as well?
The fact is, Terri Proud neither likes nor trusts Vic. (To be honest, even people who like Vic don't trust him.) Proud's campaign Chair is Marilyn Zerull, who lost to Vic in 2008. Zerull nurses a grudge against Vic who promised to work with her during the 2008 campaign, but when she wasn't around, was telling his supporters to only vote for him.
Do you think Terri is telling her supporters, "Vote for me and Vic?" Not much chance of that. And I'll bet Vic, worried that Terri could beat him, is doing his damndest to steer supporters not to vote for Terri.
Not surprisingly, on every one of Nancy's mailer are the underlined words, "Vote ONLY for Nancy Young Wright."
This is just the kind of year when the man in the middle could end up being odd man out.
Discover more from Blog for Arizona
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
Yes, JMB, that’s the conventional wisdom, that Williams will win easily. My point is, this isn’t a conventional year. The guy in the middle may not be sitting in the catbird seat. He may be sitting over the dunk tank.
I’m not making any predictions, mind you. I’m just sayin’. And I’m wondering if Vic is thinking the same single-shot/double-shot thoughts that I am.
By the sound of the trolls, I’d say there’s a bit of concern in the Williams camp OR there’s just a bit of concern over the fact that LD 26 voters are getting wise to the power of the UNDER vote.
Williams is not popular. BUT he is considered the lesser of two evils–between he and Proud. At best, the lack of signage on the streets for Mr. Williams suggest he’s having a hard time raising campaign funds. At worst, it suggests he’s given up or doesn’t care.
Everyone’s investing in tea these days and LD 26 isn’t an exception. But the tea leaves on Williams were read long ago: He’s a fickle fellow who hasn’t his own sense of direction but tends to cast his leanings in whichever way the breeze blows. Funny enough, his willingness to go with the flow hasn’t earned him a great deal of respect from members of his own caucus nor anyone else at the legislature. And I suspect even the trolls know that much to be true.
The thing is, I think he wanted to be moderate. But he won’t allow himself to be branded that way, so without a clear understanding of how he sees himself, he comes across as…well, fickle. If he’d own being a moderate, he’d be someone to contend with. But he won’t. He’ll go extreme or go bust. He’s been warned to play ball or else he’ll be “Pete Hershberger-ed.”
Too bad because AZ would be so much better off if we had a whole legislature full of Pete Hershbergers.
First of all Vic has been endorsed by the local tea party- I assume because his conservative and practical voting record earned him their endorsement. Vic has been a practical voice in the legislature while both Al Melvin and Nancy have been on the far right and left ends of the retoric. I hear that the party insiders have been increasingly concerned about Al Melvin’s ability to hold on to that seat for the R column. I think that Williams being the top vote getter in the last election cycle and again by a huge margin in this primary puts him in the cat bird seat and I think it is Vic’s coat tails Melvin and Proud are trying to ride on.
The voters of LD 26 are going to vote for Williams again and as to the others, they can only hope to ride in his jet stream.
Tyler, what a sense of humor you have, but there are no Mao or Stalin statues in my dining room, lol, just my early ballot with one pick in LD26.
Aw! Did I hit too close to home with that? Maybe taking down the Mao & Stalin statues in your dining room would be a start?
“commie lefty fans”
Wrong blog, friend. preach to your choir, not here.
Nancy’s supporters have no reason or no benefit in “single-shotting” her. There would be zero benefit in it for her. I would say that there is almost no chance that her supporters won’t vote for Vic too. Her commie lefty fans are going to be much more afraid of Terri Proud than they are of Vic Williams.
In other words, Vic doesn’t have to worry about coming in 3rd. Vic will come in 1st place easily. But there is a dang good chance that Terri Proud will be coming in 2nd place. The lefty socialist Nancy Young Wright has a very good chance to not be invited back to Phoenix to be part of the next State Legislature.
Vic isn’t afraid. He has no reason to be. The only one who’s running scared right now is Nancy Young Wright who, as you mentioned, happens to be the only one pushing hard to make sure that her voters single-shot her.