Increased AZ private school enrollment? Not really

by David Safier

It's always a little dangerous to enter an econ prof's turf and question his use of numbers, but, what the hell, I'll give it a try.

Charles North, an econ prof from Baylor University in Texas, entertained the House committee looking into whitewashing tuition tax credits with his study concluding that the tax credits saved Arizona somewhere between $44 million and $186 million in education costs just last year.

Mind you, his conclusions are speculation, by his own admission, and they're based on a study he wrote commissioned by the Center for Arizona Policy, a conservative, pro school choice group, which also paid North's airfare to Phoenix. But who knows, they could be true anyway. Except . . .

One important leg of North's analysis is that our tuition tax credits added lots of new students to private schools who wouldn't be there otherwise. Even though the growth in AZ private school enrollment since 1999 hasn't been very big, he says private schools in other states have actually lost students. The fact that Arizona gained is proof that the scholarships drew new students.

…the national trend for most of the past decade was a decline in private-school enrollment. Despite those factors, he said, Arizona's enrollment still grew thanks to the scholarships.

He's right about the private school growth in AZ in terms of pure enrollment numbers. But then again, a Snickers costs more today than it did in 1999, until you figure in inflation, and then the cost is pretty much the same. So let's see what happens to North's figures when we figure in the total increase in student population in  Arizona over the past decade. (Hint: the number drops).

Here's a graph of public/private school attendance from the Trib.

According to the graph, from 1999 to 2007, the number of students in Arizona grew by 31.5%. Public school enrollment went up 279,630 students, a 32% increase. Private school enrollment went up 6,880, a 15% increase. Private schools actually lost students when you figure in the total increase in students in the state.

Want to see that another way? In 1999, private school students made up 4.9% of the entire student population. In 2007, they made up 4.3%. They are a smaller percentage of the student population now than a decade ago. Relative to population growth, that's a loss, not a gain.

Arizona has had one of the highest population growths in the nation, so naturally there are more students in private schools now than there were when the student population was smaller. It makes no sense to compare that numerical increase directly with other states, many of which have either made modest population gains or lost population.

Unless I'm very wrong, Charles North has given us yet another example of a conservative beginning with the answer he wants, then working back until he finds some facts, any facts, that will back it up.

This is all untrained, brute strength analysis on my part. If North, the Cato Institute, which crowed about his analysis, or our friends over at G.I. want to show me where I've slipped up, I am willing to be proven wrong.