Is a Democratic Wave Coming in 2026

While several news outlets have reported on the growing unpopularity of the Democratic Party and a decrease in their ability to register new voters in battleground states across the country, a funny thing is happening.

Democrats are consistently over performing in special elections in 2025.

Even in Trump 2024 strongholds like Iowas Senate District One where Catelin Drey’s victory in an area Trump won by 11 points last year took away Republicans Supermajority dominance.

Or Pennsylvania’s Pennsylvania’s SD-36 where Democrats prevailed in a race, giving the party legislative control in a district Trump won by 15 points last year.

Or earlier in the year when Democrats, despite Elon Musk’s illegal offering of money for people to turn out to vote, won a State Supreme Court seat in Wisconsin.

Overall, Democrats are outperforming Republicans by an average of 16 points in 2025.

Could this be, like in 2017, when special elections showed Democratic strength, with voters dissatisfied with Donald Trump’s MAGA policies, serial lying, and slew of broken promises like Mexico will pay for the wall and health care will be better and more affordable, rising to the point where they dominated the 2018 House Midterms.

Could this recent electoral trend mean a Democratic wave in 2026?

What is causing this Democratic surge at the ballot box where polls show the party’s popularity at historic lows?

According to Gallup, Independents, irate with Trump’s handling of inflation, legislation that robs social safety net security like health care and food assistance from the poor and middle class to give billionaires tax cuts they do not need, and an inhumane immigration policy where innocent people doing their jobs and living their lives while doing no harm to anyone are whisked off the streets by unidentified masked ICE Gestapo agents, are strongly shifting to the Democratic candidates in this election.

Sarah Curmi, Executive Director of Sister District, credits the Democratic surge at the legislative level to good old fashioned grassroots organizing and strongly recommends that the party up its investment, messaging, and turnout game with regard to these state legislative and other local races.

Democratic Consultant Dr. Rachel Bitecofer, the writer of Hit Em Where it Hurts, commented to Blog for Arizona:

“A large midterm effect is already brewing from backlash to Trump’s Godzilla through the federal government. We have seen an average of 10 points over performance for Democrats in elections since 2024. This is why Trump pushed Texas to create their super gerrymander and will likely do so in all the red states they can.”

“So far, generic ballot, polling, and election results all suggest a large midterm wave but eventually, Democrats are going to need to see a surge of registration. Thats the only sign they are missing. That said, the mid term electorate will be more educated than the general electorate. That used to be why Republicans performed so well in them. Now college educated voters are realigned to Democrats just as non college educated voters have realigned to Republicans. For 2028 Democrats will need to stop and reverse some of the erosion they’ve had in that part of the electorate.”

Curmi and Dr. Bitecofer is right.

Democrats need to channel a bottom up approach to rejuvenating the party and start putting an emphasis on prevailing in state legislative and local races like City Council and Mayoral ones.

They also need to recover the formula they have lost in connecting with Non College Educated, working class, and more uninformed voters who believed Trumps lies, despite his and his party’s poor track record towards them and the country.

Democratic candidates who are authentic, show they care, are interested in listening to voters concerns, and offer a vision that is progressive on policies like health care, affordability, education, and mobility while also being socially tolerant and inclusive, supports law enforcement, and is in favor of strong border security and comprehensive immigration reform, are ideal to carry this message across all the districts throughout the country to all the American People.

That type of candidate could help lead a Democratic wave in 2026, 2028, and beyond.