My two biggest election surprises

by David Safier

The least surprising thing for me this primary election is what a lousy handicapper I am. I tried not to predict election outcomes, but even my reluctant guesses were pretty poor.

The two biggest surprises for me were the large margins of victory for Chris Deschene (Sec of State) and Penny Kotterman (Ed Supe). Both were pleasant surprises, since I voted for them, but the lopsided victories surprised me.

Sam Wercinski and Jason Williams were both very credible, and very acceptable, candidates. Wercinski had a huge list of endorsements and appeared very active, based on his email output which, admittedly, is a poor indicator of how hard a candidate is working on the ground. Williams had name familiarity from 2006 and one of those "good ol' American" names that people tend to choose if they don't know the candidates. And he is an excellent public speaker and debater, arguably better than Kotterman.

So what happened?

My guess is that both Deschene and Kotterman have sizable groups of voters who have a stake in getting them elected, while the other two had a more general but less specialized appeal. Deschene, a Navajo, is very attractive to Arizona's Native American community, and I'm reasonably certain he appeals to the state's Hispanic population as well. Kotterman, an experienced teacher and former head of the AEA, appeals to teachers as well as members of a variety of unions. In low turnout primaries, candidates with the more energized voters win.

My big hope is, both the winners will be good for Democrats up and down the ticket in November. If Deschene's candidacy helps draw Native Americans and Hispanics to the polls, that helps every Democrat starting with Goddard and continuing on down the ballot. Likewise, if Kotterman gets teachers and union members out to vote, that can swing close races in Democrats' favor. (Teachers, to my shame, don't show up to vote in large numbers. Come on, teachers, our future is at stake! Vote in November!) And if their supporters are energized to work during the campaigns — unions are well known for putting feet on the ground — that can help shake loose more votes.

So I'm pleased to see Deschene and Kotterman proved themselves to be strong vote getters. It gives them a better shot in November, and it could just make the difference in other races as well.