Tuition tax credit expenditures far exceed estimates

by David Safier
The East Valley Trib has brought more information into the discussion in its article on the tuition tax credit task force hearings.

First, in the original selling of the tax credits, the cost was low-balled big time.

Materials presented to the panel by [House staff economist Mark] Bogart indicate the Legislature
dramatically underestimated how much the program would cost the state
when the law was approved. At that time, the Joint Legislative Budget
Committee noted the cost to the state’s general fund would be about
$4.5 million in fiscal year 1999.

Donations for 2008 totaled $55 million.

Other predictions for the credits have either gone unproved or been disproved. The program was supposed to save the state money, because students who otherwise would have used taxpayer dollars in public schools would use less state money to go to private schools.

And if the $55 million was saving the public schools money, you'd expect to see a jump in private school enrollment to indicate students were using the money to leave public schools. Didn't happen.

Private school enrollment has grown from 44,710 in 1999 to 51,590 in 2007-08.

I did the math. Enrollment in public schools went up about 31%. Private school enrollment went up %15. Private school enrollment actually decreased as a percent of the student population. Not exactly a lot of bang for the 55 million bucks.