What if . . .

by David Safier

I don't usually indulge in "What ifs," because if you change one thing, three other things change, so any conclusions from "What ifs" are questionable at best.

That being said: What if . . .

After 9/11, we focused our military efforts on Afghanistan, including chasing Al Qaeda into Tora Bora and possibly wiping out much of their leadership and crippling their effectiveness, instead of . . .

Pulling our troops out of Afghanistan and going into Iraq, where we toppled Saddam Hussein, who was a horrible despot but probably not much different from other despots in the Middle East and elsewhere, at the cost of billions of dollars we could have better used at home, and at the cost of lives of thousands of American soldiers — those killed as well as those seriously injured physically and mentally — and at the incalculable cost to countless Iraqis who died and were injured and others who lost everything, some of whom fled the country, which would mean that . . .

Iraq would have gone on pretty much as it had, as a functional, sectarian, reasonably well educated country under the thumb of a repressive government, but probably not much more repressive than many other governments in the Middle East and elsewhere, with Saddam Hussein creating as much mischief as he could across the Middle East, but probably not doing more damage than has been done by other countries?

Now given that scenario, let's flash forward a few years. What if . . .

During the past year, when Egyptian and Tunisian youth and others dissatisfied with their governments got together on the internet and learned and planned and waited until the moment was right to mount massive protests against their repressive governments, Iraq's youth and intelligensia were learning and planning and waiting right along side them, and . . .

After Tunisia's government toppled, and Egypt's government toppled, and unrest began rolling like thunder into other Middle Eastern countries, Iraq became another of the many countries actively struggling to get out from under the yoke of their repressive government?

The result could be, Saddam Hussein and his henchmen, still in power, could be swept out of power by a people's revolution in Iraq. And thousands of young Americans would still be alive and sound of body. And nobody-knows-how-many Iraqis would still be alive and sound of body, and living where they had always lived in a country that didn't look like a bombed-out war zone. And billions of dollars we spent to mess things up in Iraq wouldn't have been spent. And something like a real democracy might be taking hold in a few years in Iraq instead of this sham government we have helped set up which barely functions.

And who knows, maybe Afghanistan would be in a better place as well, and be ready for a tide of reform and democracy to wash over the land.

We'll never know, of course. You can't change history. But what if?