Posted by AzBlueMeanie:
In the final Latino Decisions Tracking Poll before election day,
President Obama is "poised to win a record high share of the Latino vote, and in
turn likely to win key swing states and enough electoral college votes
to retain the presidency." Latino Decisions: if Latino vote is high, Obama will carry 4 key swing states:
impreMedia & Latino Decisions today released the last in a series of
11 weekly tracking polls with results suggesting President Obama is
poised to win a record high share of the Latino vote, and in turn likely
to win key swing states and enough electoral college votes to retain
the presidency. [View complete week 11 results here]
During the course of the 11 weeks of tracking, there have been
fluctuations in Obama’s favorability and attitudes about key issues
among Latinos, but overall results indicate the President has retained
consistent support and Latinos report they are likely to turn out in
record numbers.
Sixteen percent of respondents indicated that they had already voted
early, with another 73% saying they were certain to vote, reflecting
increasing levels of enthusiasm over the course of this poll.
The President’s support continued its steady climb with 64% saying
they are certain to vote for him on election day and another 8% leaning
towards him. Romney’s supporters also remained consistent, but overall
he was unable to make significant inroads with Latino voters. Week 11
polling found 22% said they were certain to or might vote for Romney,
compared to 24% during Week 1 polling.
Among likely Latino voters, those with consistent vote history or
have already voted, 73% say they plan to vote for Obama compared to 24%
for Romney and 3% undecided. If Obama wins 73% or higher of the Latino
vote, it would eclipse the 72% won by Bill Clinton in his landslide re-election in 1996, and mark the highest total ever for a Democratic presidential candidate.
“With 11 weeks of tracking, we are headed towards a record level of
Latino votes for a Democratic presidential candidate,” said Matt
Barreto, principal investigator for Latino Decisions. “If Latinos
turnout at the high rates we are expecting, they could deliver Nevada,
Colorado, Florida and Virginia to Obama.”
Overall, Latino voters had a positive view of Democrats and when
asked who they would vote for in the upcoming U.S. House of
Representatives election, 68% had already voted or were certain they
would vote for Democrats, and another 4% saying they lean towards
Democrats in the Congressional vote.
“Voter enthusiasm in this election has increased significantly which
is extremely encouraging” said Monica Lozano, CEO of impreMedia. “All
indications are that Latinos are motivated and will turn out in record
numbers proving once again that this electorate is critical for any
national candidate to win.”