The consequences of failure to ratify the New START treaty: a new arms race

Posted by AzBlueMeanie:

Nuke Some of Sen. Jon Kyl's biggest campaign contributors are defense contractors (look it up), so maybe he sees this as a win-win for his campaign contributors and his campaign coffers. Most Americans and the rest of the world, however, see this as a dangerous stunt.

Keep in mind there is political posturing going on here, but even so, today's speech by Russian President Dmitri Medvedev makes clear what is at stake in the ratification of the New START treaty. Medvedev Warns of New Arms Race:

President Dmitri A. Medvedev, expressing continued wariness over the prospect of military cooperation with his country’s former cold war adversaries, warned on Tuesday that a failure by Russia and the West to reach an agreement on missile defense could provoke a new arms race.

The remarks, delivered in the annual state of the nation address, came just weeks after Mr. Medvedev signaled his country’s readiness to begin cooperating with NATO on the development of a European missile defense network.

“The following alternatives await us in the next 10 years,” Mr. Medvedev told an audience of Russia’s top leaders gathered at the Kremlin. “Either we reach an agreement on missile defense and create a joint mechanism for cooperation or, if we do not succeed in entering into a constructive understanding, there will begin a new arms race.”

In the absence of cooperation, he said, Russia would be prepared to deploy “new means of attack.”

The remarks elicited applause from the audience, which included Mr. Medvedev’s predecessor and mentor, Vladimir V. Putin, who as prime minister remains Russia’s paramount leader.

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NATO leaders agreed at a summit meeting this month in Lisbon to create a defense shield that would protect all NATO members from attacks by rogue countries like Iran. At the meeting, Mr. Medvedev accepted NATO’s invitation for Russia to participate in the project.

It is still unclear, however, what Russia’s role in the project might be, and Mr. Medvedev’s remarks on Tuesday, delivered in the clipped, aggressive style typically favored by the more hawkish Mr. Putin, appeared to signal that Russia’s participation was not unconditional.

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Republican senators have expressed concern that the so-called New Start treaty would ultimately inhibit missile defense [i.e., Saint Ronnie Reagan's Star Wars missile defense shield], although the pact itself includes no restrictions on current plans.

Senator John McCain, the Arizona Republican, said Tuesday that he hoped the Senate could approve the treaty by the end of the year as President Obama has insisted. Mr. McCain’s views carry particular weight because he is one of his party’s leading voices on national security and he has stood by his Arizona colleague, Senator Jon Kyl, who has resisted a vote on the treaty this year until his concerns about modernizing the nuclear complex are resolved.

“I believe that we could move forward with the Start treaty and satisfy Senator Kyl’s concerns and mine about missile defense and others, and I hope that we can do that,” Mr. McCain said on “Good Morning America” on ABC News. Asked if he means this year, he added, “I would hope so. But Senator Kyl’s concerns are very legitimate and I think that attempts are being made to address them.

Further complicating the debate, though, may be a report in [Fox News owner Rupert Murdoch's] The Wall Street Journal about Russia moving short-range tactical nuclear warheads to facilities near NATO allies last spring in response to the deployment of American and NATO missile defense installations nearer its territory. The moves have been reported before but the fresh attention to them could embolden critics of the treaty.

Mr. Kyl’s office sent a copy of the article to reporters on Tuesday and Mr. McCain cited it in his television interview.

“I’m a little disturbed at the news this morning that tactical nuclear weapons have been moved closer to Europe by the Russians,” he said. “But that is not directly related to the Start treaty but certainly is an indication of the need to have verification.”

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Responding to the article Tuesday in The Wall Street Journal, Nikolai Makarov, the chief of the Russian military’s general staff, said that Russia had not moved missiles into Kaliningrad, but left unclear whether they could have been moved to other regions along the border.

The treaty covers long-range strategic nuclear weapons, not shorter-range tactical nuclear weapons. American and Russian officials have long planned to talk about limits on tactical weapons in a treaty that would follow the New Start pact. Administration officials have pointed out that if the United States fails to ratify the New Start treaty, it would mean the two countries could not move on to discussions about tactical weapons.

Russian cooperation and nuclear arms reduction are the goals here. It is not perpetuating the Cold War to keep defense contractors profitable so they can make campaign contributions.