A month ago, anyone predicting $200-a-barrel oil would have been dismissed as alarmist. Not anymore.
Today, Brent Crude is trading around $102–$108 per barrel, after touching highs near $119–$120, according to Reuters. At that price:
- Regular unleaded is roughly $4.33–$4.46 per gallon in Arizona.
- Premium sells for around $5.00–$5.15.
- In the Phoenix Area prices exceed $4.60 per gallon.
When oil prices reach $200 per barrel, analysts predict U.S. gasoline prices will surge to $6 to $7 per gallon in Arizona — or even higher, depending on how severely the market is disrupted. A $200 price point would likely trigger significant economic strain on voters.
Arizona Sen. Ruben Gallego is urging federal regulators to monitor the state’s fuel supply closely and prepare emergency contingency plans, warning that the state’s dependence on out-of-state pipelines leaves it vulnerable to.
The U.S. and Israel are conducting large strikes “deeper into Iranian territory,” hitting missile launch sites, air defenses, naval bases, and energy infrastructure.
But Trump the tyrant is considering sending thousands of additional U.S. troops to the Middle East to support the current air and naval campaign against Iran, according to officials cited by Reuters and others.
Supply in freefall: millions of barrels vanish
The stunning collapse in Middle East oil production and exports has ripped a massive hole in the global energy supply, triggering fears of a price shock that could slam American families and the economy.
The numbers are staggering. Middle East oil exports have plunged by nearly two-thirds in just weeks—from more than 25 million barrels per day in February to as low as 7.5–9.7 million by mid-March.
At the same time, production cuts across the region have removed more than 7–10 million barrels per day from global supply:
- Iraq: down 2.9 million barrels/day
- Saudi Arabia: down up to 2.5 million barrels/day
- UAE: down 1.5 million barrels/day
- Kuwait: down 1.3 million barrels/day
A massive share of the world’s oil is … gone.
“There is no physical oil.”
This isn’t just about markets. It’s about real, physical shortages. As Irina Slav reports on Oilprice.com, “there is no physical oil to respond to demand.”
And when that happens, prices don’t just rise—they explode. Energy analysts are sounding the alarm:
“We’re very much in the $150 range, but I don’t think it’s ridiculous at all to [suggest] $200, Onyx Capital Group CEO Greg Newman told CNBC this week.
“I wouldn’t be surprised if oil went to 200 bucks, or even $250, because commodity prices go parabolic when there’s a shortage of supply,” said Chris Watling, the chief market strategist of Longview Economics.
In other words: once shortages hit, markets panic—and prices spike hard.
Lack of storage + war = perfect storm
A dangerous combination is threatening the world’s oil supply.:
- Ongoing conflict is disrupting exports.
- Storage facilities are filling up fast.
- Oil is being diverted to floating storage on tankers rather than reaching markets.
Even if fighting stopped tomorrow, voters can’t expect relief anytime soon. Restarting oil production isn’t like flipping a switch—it can take months.
As Slav notes, “even if the bombs stop flying tomorrow, it will take a while for things to get back to normal.”
Senator Gallego: Prices are unaffordable
Arizona gas prices have risen $1.19 per gallon in the past month, according to a March 16 letter from Sen. Gallego to Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Lee Zeldin and Energy Secretary Chris Wright. Gallego attributed the price jump to the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran.
Elevated diesel prices also affect trucking companies and commercial drivers, increasing costs for groceries and other goods that depend on fuel transportation, Gallego said.
“These price increases are much higher than the national average and are increasingly unaffordable for many of my constituents,” Gallego wrote, adding that many Arizonans rely on gasoline to “go to work and keep food on the table.”
If oil hits $150–$200, it will be devastating to working families in Arizona, already squeezed by housing costs and affordability pressures.
As Slav writes, “a scenario that only a month ago would be called insane is now a real possibility.”
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Gee, I wonder where we’d be if we’d have spent the last 50 years weaning ourselves off of fossil fuels?
Did we learn nothing from gas crisis of the 70’s? When foreign countries brought our great nation and economy to its knees?
Where could we have spent the trillions of dollars we would not have spent on Middle East wars?
I suppose we could have used the money to build affordable housing for the tens of thousands of American soldiers who wouldn’t be all dead and whatnot.
It’s not just the price of gasoline in the USA.
A lot of the world’s supply of fertilizer passes through Hormuz, so if the war, and it is a fucking war, drags on much longer, there will be mass starvation in some poor places already struggling with food insecurity, and food in the USA will get even more expensive.
And unlike oil, when food prices go up, they don’t usually come all the way back down, so our economy is doubly screwed.
And it’s petroleum by products, which is pretty much everything from personal care products to food packaging to all the plastics and even perfumes.
Trump the PDfile didn’t think Iran would fight back because he’s mentally ill and stupid beyond belief.
Trump the Child Rapist and MAGA will go down in history as America’s most massive mass murderers.
Venezuela didn’t want to fight Trump, Gaza couldn’t fight Israel backed by the US, so Trump in his perpetual brain fog must have figured Iran would prefer to cut a deal after some bombing. Bibi would prefer to annihilate Iran no matter the cost, the time it takes, or how many innocent people die or starve or suffer. Trump may have gone too far this time, wielding his absolute and unchallenged power.