89 Year Old Sen. Chuck Grassley May Finally Meet His Waterloo (Iowa)

The Des Moines Register reports on a race which has not received the obsessive attention from the chattering class of media villagers. Iowa Poll: Chuck Grassley narrowly leads Mike Franken in US Senate race:

Republican U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley’s lead over Democrat Mike Franken has narrowed to 3 percentage points with less than a month until Election Day, signaling Grassley’s toughest reelection fight in 40 years.

A new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows Grassley leads with 46% of the vote to Franken’s 43% among likely voters. Another 4% would vote for someone else, 4% would not vote and 3% are not sure.

“It says to me that Franken is running a competent campaign and has a shot to defeat the seemingly invincible Chuck Grassley — previously perceived to be invincible,” said pollster J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co. The poll of 804 Iowa adults, including 620 likely voters, was conducted Oct. 9-12 by Selzer & Co. The questions asked of all Iowans have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points; it’s plus or minus 3.9 percentage points for the questions asked of likely voters.

Grassley, 89, is seeking his eighth term in the Senate this year. Franken, 64, is a retired U.S. Navy admiral.

The numbers suggest a contest closer than any Grassley has faced since he defeated a Democratic incumbent by 8 percentage points to win his first election to the Senate in 1980.

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Many political pundits and party officials had written off this year’s Iowa Senate contest, expecting Grassley to once again cruise to victory. Election analysts for months have rated the race in Grassley’s favor, and national Democratic groups have indicated they don’t plan to spend money supporting Franken, instead focusing on states where they see greater potential for victory.

But the poll indicates weaknesses for Grassley beyond his head-to-head race with Franken.

His job disapproval rating is a record high for him in the Iowa Poll. The percentage of Iowans who view him unfavorably also hit a peak. And nearly two-thirds of likely voters say the senator’s age is a concern rather than an asset.

Franken, meanwhile, is still unknown to more than a third of Iowans [so he has room to grow]. But of those who do know enough about him to form an opinion, more view him favorably than unfavorably.

U.S. Senate race narrows as independents shift to Mike Franken

Franken has improved his performance since July, when a previous Iowa Poll showed Grassley leading by eight percentage points, 47% to 39%.

Franken’s improvement in the head-to-head contest is aided by an advantage among political independents, who back him over Grassley by 11 percentage points, 46% to 35%.

In July, independents were nearly evenly split, with 38% backing Franken and 37% backing Grassley.

Where do Chuck Grassley and Mike Franken have the strongest support?

Each candidate has nearly universal support among members of their own political parties, with 93% of Democrats supporting Franken and 90% of Republicans supporting Grassley.

Just 4% of Democrats say they would vote for Grassley, while 2% of Republicans say they would vote for Franken.

Those numbers show both candidates consolidating support among their own parties. In July, 88% of Democrats supported Franken and 85% of Republicans supported Grassley.

Among demographic groups, Grassley’s strongest showing comes among evangelicals, with 73% support. He also receives majority support from rural residents (61%); men (56%); and Protestants (54%).

He also gets 53% support among those ages 55 and older, those without a college degree and those who live in towns. And he has 52% support from Iowans in the 4th Congressional District and 51% from Catholics.

Franken earns majority support among those with no religious affiliation (62%), those with a college degree (56%), city dwellers (55%), women (54%) and suburban voters (53%).

Most likely voters are concerned about Chuck Grassley’s age

Grassley faces concerns about his age from a majority of likely voters — including a third of those who say they plan to vote for him.

At 89, Grassley is the second-oldest senator currently in office, behind only Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein of California, who is a few months older. If he is elected and serves out another six-year term, he would be the second-oldest member of Congress ever at 95.

He has served in public office continuously since he was first elected to the Iowa Legislature in 1958. [Living on the public dole his entire adult life.]

Grassley has portrayed his longevity as an asset, arguing it gives him clout and influence as he works on behalf of Iowans.

But just a third — 34% of likely Iowa voters — say they believe his longevity is an asset to Iowa. Most — 60% — say his age is a concern. Another 6% say they’re not sure. [Statistically speaking he is unlikely to complete another term in office, so why not face reality now? He has been in office more than long enough, its time to move on now to a new senator.]

Among Republicans, 58% say Grassley’s longevity is an asset. But more than a third, 37%, say his age is a concern.

Independents view his age as more of a concern (64%) than an asset (30%).

And Democrats are overwhelmingly concerned, at 86%. Just 8% see Grassley’s years of service as an asset.

The results send “a strong message that this is a piece of what’s going on with the erosion of support for Chuck Grassley,” Selzer said.

During a televised Senate debate earlier this month, Grassley said he intends to serve out a full six-year term if he’s elected. He said Iowans who wonder whether he’s up to the task should look at his schedule.

“I go to bed at nine, get up at four, run two miles, get to the office by six, sometimes a little bit before six,” he said.

He said he went 27 years without missing a vote in Congress, he completes his committee work in Washington, D.C., and he tours the state’s 99 counties when he’s at home.

“I think that that’s how I’m going to continue for the next term of office if the people will return me to the United States Senate,” he said.

Most likely voters see Mike Franken’s out-of-state experience as an asset

The Grassley campaign has sought to cast Franken as out of touch with everyday Iowans.

Franken is originally from Lebanon, Iowa, and lives in Sioux City. He spent nearly 40 years in the Navy and retired in 2017 as a three-star vice admiral.

He has held a variety of roles in Washington, including as the first military officer on U.S. Sen. Ted Kennedy’s staff, at the U.S. Department of Defense and as chief of legislative affairs for the Navy.

He returned to Iowa in 2019 to run for the U.S. Senate seat held by Republican Sen. Joni Ernst, but he finished second in the 2020 Democratic primary.

He faced accusations of “carpetbagging” in his 2020 race, and some Republicans have echoed that criticism in 2022. After one negative tweet from a conservative blogger, Franken lashed out.

“I was born in Iowa. I will be buried here,” he said in a statement at the time. “To say that I am no longer an Iowan because I put on our country’s uniform is beyond the pale.” [Republicans denigrating a career of military service.]

A majority of likely voters, 52%, say Franken’s military career spent outside the state would be an asset to Iowa. That includes 84% of Democrats, 55% of independents and 25% of Republicans.

Another 29% say Franken’s experience means he is out of touch with Iowa issues, and 19% say they aren’t sure.

Among Republicans, 48% say Franken’s experience means he is out of touch [Republicans denigrating a career of military service], as do 28% of independents and 7% of Democrats.

Chuck Grassley’s job disapproval, unfavorable ratings rise to their highest levels

For the first time in an Iowa Poll, more Iowans disapprove of Grassley’s job performance than approve.

The longtime senator’s 48% disapproval is his highest ever, 4 percentage points higher than the 44% of Iowans who approve of his performance. Another 9% say they are not sure.

[T]he disapproval/approval margin in the latest Iowa Poll is slightly wider among likely voters: 50% disapprove of Grassley and 45% approve.

Grassley receives 77% approval among Republicans, 36% among independents and 14% among Democrats. Meanwhile, 84% of Democrats disapprove of Grassley, as do 52% of independents and 14% of Republicans.

Grassley is also seeing his highest unfavorable rating in an Iowa Poll.

While the percentage of Iowans who view Grassley favorably has remained steady at 47% since the question was asked in March, the percentage of Iowans who view Grassley unfavorably has risen by 6 percentage points, to 46%.

Those numbers are being driven by an increase in Iowans who view Grassley very unfavorably — jumping from 19% in March to 28% now. Eighteen percent say they view Grassley mostly unfavorably, while 20% view him very favorably and 27% view him mostly favorably.

Franken, meanwhile, is far less well-known than Grassley, but more Iowans feel favorably toward him than unfavorably. The poll found 36% of Iowans view Franken favorably, while 27% view him unfavorably.

Franken’s positive and negative ratings both have increased from the March Iowa Poll, when 21% viewed him favorably and 11% viewed him unfavorably. Still, 37% said they are not sure how they feel about Franken [so room to grow], compared with 7% who are not sure about Grassley.

Franken’s favorability breaks down to 12% very favorable, 24% mostly favorable, 16% mostly unfavorable and 11% very unfavorable.