A Democratic “Wave” Election

Posted by AzBlueMeanie:

Back in May, Michael Bryan posted a piece entitled Blue Tsunami.  Michael predicted that "I'm expecting a generational re-alignment. Not only will Obama win, he'll win huge: Reagan vs. Mondale huge. Not only will Democrats defend their Congressional majority, they will extend it by at least 30 more seats in the House (maybe as many as 60) and by 5 or more in the Senate."

Michael's other fearless predictions: "Democrats will make pick-ups in AZ-1 and AZ-3 and successfully, even handily, defend recent gains in AZ-5 and AZ-8." And "I also expect new Democratic majorities in state houses across the country, including Arizona. We are only 4 seats away from taking the Arizona House…"

Michael's early election projections appear to be not far off the mark from what is expected to occur on Election Day.

This election is going to be a Democratic "wave" election that ushers in a political realignment. The Reagan Revolution is at an end (George W. Bush should be credited with ending it).

Movement conservatism laissez-faire economics, repackaged as free market, no government regulation, greed is good "Reagonomics" has collapsed under its own fraudulent weight in spectacular fashion. Laissez-faire economics ended in a Great Depression, and Reaganomics has brought us to the brink of another depression. Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me. Or as George W. Bush would say, "we won't get fooled again!" The disciples of Ayn Rand, Milton Friedman and Alan Greenspan should forever be banished into exile (I hear Guantanamo will be available soon).

While Barack Obama will win big on Tuesday, Michael's prediction of a Reagan-Mondale electoral college vote was a bit over-exuberant (Mondale won only Minnesota and D.C.) One can dream. Most prognosticators are projecting the mid-300s range in electoral votes. Still a decisive win that will give Barack Obama a mandate for his policies when coupled with increased Democratic majorities in the House and Senate (and in state legislatures). This election is a referendum rejecting the tenants of movement conservatism, despite what the conservative pundits who have made their living peddling this snake oil will claim in their post-mortems of this election. Their day is over.

Democrats should comfortably pick up 20-25 seats in the House of Representatives, and depending upon voter turnout in "red" Republican districts, conceivably it could go as high as 30-35 seats. In the modern era of computerized Gerrymandering, however, a 60 seat shift is highly improbable. Sorry, Mike.

Michael was too conservative with his Senate projections. The political parlor game today is whether the Democrats can pick up nine seats for a 60 seat filibuster-proof majority in the Senate to put an end to the era of Republican obstructionism. Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com charts the Senate races:

Democrats are certain to pick up six Senate seats.

Kay Hagan has led in North Carolina since September, and Liddy Dole's outrageous religious attack ad has been roundly condemned by both Republicans and Democrats alike. The ad backfired. Hagan is favored to get us to 7.

Norm Coleman has a slight lead in some polls in Minnesota. He has run the nastiest campaign of the year, reflecting his personality. Coleman sued Al Franken over an ad this past week (as he has done in every race he has run – this kind of gimmick quickly gets old) and he has other legal issues which have surfaced late in the campaign. Minnesota has an independent party candidate complicating this race. A big Obama turnout might be enough coattails to carry Franken over the top (and Minnesota always has high voter turnout). Franken can get us to 8.

Heavy African-American voter turnout in Georgia, Mississippi and Kentucky could provide the ninth Senate seat, despite the Democratic candidates trailing slightly in recent polls. But what it will really take is for Southern white voters to finally pull their heads out of their ass and stop voting against their own economic best interests (Why the economy fares much better under Democrats) instead of reflexively voting Republican for so-called "social issues" (race and religion).

George W. Bush is on track to leave office without creating one net job during his eight years in office; his tax giveaways to the wealthiest top 5% of Americans has doubled our national debt to almost $11 trillion (ask yourself, what does America have to show for it?); the "ponzi scheme" financial services economy he built to replace the manufacturing economy Republicans shipped overseas in the name of "free trade" has collapsed and taxpayers saddled with the bad debt; our economy lies in ruins; and he started two wars that he failed to pay for, and he failed to finish. What person in their right mind would vote for Republican enablers of George W. Bush like Mitch McConnell and Saxby Chambliss? If Georgia, Kentucky, and Mississippi elect a Democratic senator, that giant sucking sound you hear Tuesday night will be Southern white voters pulling their heads out of their ass, marking the end of the decades-old Republican "Southern Strategy."

Here in Arizona, I am cautiously optimistic that Democrats will not only take the House in the Arizona Legislature for the first time since 1966, but Democrats also have an even chance of capturing the Senate as well, or at least a 15-15 tie (which will allow the Democrats to control the Senate).

Harry Mitchell (AZ-5) and Gabriel Giffords (AZ-8) will comfortably win reelection to their congressional seats. Ann Kirkpatrick will be a Democratic pick-up in AZ-1. The real action is in AZ-3 where Democrat Bob Lord is in a dogfight with arch-conservative John Shadegg. Helping Bob win in AZ-3 should be a top priority for Democrats.

Finally, John McCain may survive a scare from Obama on his home turf, but his margin will only be in the single digits, adding insult to the injury of his electoral defeat. A loss to Obama would be a humiliating rejection by his fellow Arizonans who know him best.