AIRC Meets Thursday for Second Deliberation on New Districts: Voting Rights Act a Likely Driver

The second of eight “final decision meetings” schedule by the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission. The meeting begins at 9:00 am on Thursday and you can follow along here.  You can comment using this link shortly after the meeting begins.

Based on the Monday meeting it seems clear they realize the draft maps are problematic in terms of compliance with the federal Voting Rights Act. It is likely that adjustments to the plans to create more “defensible” districts is what will drive the most changes in this last phase of deliberations. A few specifics:

* CD 3 and CD 7 – after dismissing the map submissions from the Arizona Latino Coalition for Fair Redistricting out of hand in the development phase, the AIRC has now asked to see the submissions of the coalition placed into the draft plans. They are not going to take these proposals exactly – but it is still going to force them to make some sacrifices. Commissioner York was heard to say now that he had a better understanding of the Voting Rights Act, he was less bothered by the inclusion of part of Maricopa County in CD 3.

The proposed CD 3 also includes parts of Pima and Yuma along the southern border.

• Yet to be wrestled with are the northern Arizona congressional districts. The current plan in effect since 2011 has one republican district (current CD 4) and one competitive district (current CD 1). In the draft map configuration, northern Arizona proposed congressional district 2 is a mostly Democratic district; and proposed CD 9 is solidly Republican. The issue is that proposed CD 2 includes all of Flagstaff – which as the highest population center is almost certain to produce representation for the district.
• This is the same issue in CD 9 which includes >65% population from Maricopa County and links it with Mohave County and the other Colorado River counties on the western border. In the proposed CD 9, representation will always come from Maricopa County and dilute the rural voices in Mohave and La Paz County. Likewise, in the proposed CD 2, representation will always come from Flagstaff which will eliminate the opportunity for Native Indians to elect representation from their own community. The solution to this problem is to divide Yavapai county at Mingus Mountain – as valiantly advocated by mountains of testimony from Flagstaff, Coconino County, Sedona, and the Verde Valley. For most of the last 40 years, northern Arizona has been divided thusly.

The AIRC is divided on the issue with Commissions David Mehl advocating for combining the Navajo Nation with Flagstaff, not the White Mountain community as “they have been disadvantaged for the last ten years and have been clear they do not want to be in the same district.” Where this boundary is drawn also affects the districts in Pima County where he has engaged in partisan efforts (aka the #TucsonGerrymander) to create a Republican district for State Representative Vince Leach.

Vice Chair Derrick Watchman argues the interests are the same with both Flagstaff and the White Mountain communities. The difference, Commissioner Lerner says is ethnicity, native and non-native population.

On the Mehl #TucsonGerrymander, it remains whole and intact as the AIRC enters Day 2 of adjustments. One thing that was evident on Monday was that Chairwoman Neuberg is as flexible (or inconsistent) as ever, arguing one moment for adjustments as suggested by one map or another, and then arguing against it ten minutes later. Suggesting nothing is settled in one scenario, and then challenging reengagement on a topic that had already been resolved by “compromise” in another. Whiplash is an occupational hazard listening to the meetings live. Beware if you tune in.