Arizona’s Midterms Will Be a Knife Fight — and Democrats Must Be Ready

Top strategist Eric Chalmers warns of a ruthless GOP machine, a looming voter-suppression blitz, and the fight for Arizona’s political soul.

Arizona is heading into one of the most consequential midterm election cycles in its modern history — and Democrats who underestimate what’s coming do so at their peril.

That was the unmistakable message delivered by Eric Chalmers, senior strategist behind Senator Ruben Gallego’s historic victory and co-founder of Resilient Strategies, during a wide-ranging briefing to Democrats of Greater Tucson.

Chalmers didn’t sugarcoat the moment. He described a political battlefield already reshaped by extremism, dark money, and an increasingly sophisticated right-wing organizing machine — one that has effectively replaced the Republican Party in Arizona.

“In Arizona, I always make the joke that, in our politics, we have our five Cs: copper, cattle, climate, citrus, and cotton. And then we have our sixth C, which is crazy,” he said.

And in 2026, that chaos will be weaponized.

A True Battleground — Where 10% Decide Everything

Arizona is one of the nation’s last true battleground states, Chalmers said — a place where elections are not won by ideology alone, but by persuading a narrow slice of voters who swing between parties.

Every cycle, he explained, comes down to the same question: “Who are the 10 to 15 percent of voters we can move — and how do we reach them?”

The number of those voters may be growing as Democrats increasingly register as independents rather than defecting to Republicans outright. But winning them requires discipline, authenticity, and relentless ground-level engagement.

The GOP’s New Engine: Turning Point USA

If Democrats are serious about winning in 2026, Chalmers warned, they must confront a hard truth: Turning Point USA has become the functional Republican Party in Arizona.

The racist, anti-Semitic organization operates as a year-round, fully staffed campaign apparatus — running field programs, faith-based organizing, and campus recruitment.

Using tactics that are aggressive, personal, and vicious, Turning Point coordinated messaging designed to flood low-information voters with fear and outrage.

Chalmers pointed to the Julie Spilsbury recall election in Mesa as a chilling preview of what’s coming statewide. Spilsbury, a moderate Republican city council member, was targeted relentlessly. Turning Point operatives spent more than $1 million on a municipal recall — blanketing neighborhoods with signs, spreading transphobic disinformation, and even staging demonstrations outside her home.

“She endorsed Kamala Harris for president. She endorsed Ruben Gallego for his Senate, and they vowed to take her out. They legally had to cite other reasons for it, but that was the reason for it,” Chalmers said.

They ultimately won by just four percentage points — but the real danger wasn’t the margin. It was the turnout.

“They successfully mobilized Trump-only voters in a low-turnout, off-cycle election,” Chalmers warned. “That’s what should worry us.”

Voter Suppression Is Coming

Chalmers also warned that Arizona Republicans are laying the groundwork for Florida-style election restrictions, including new limits on early ballot drop-offs and tighter voting deadlines.

One proposed measure restricting polling places (HCR 2040) would prohibit Arizona’s popular vote centers. The Legislature failed to put the initiative on the ballot.

“These aren’t abstract threats,” he said. “They are designed to reduce turnout — and they disproportionately hurt Democratic voters.”

With federal election-security resources slashed and bomb threats already used to shut down polling places in recent elections, Chalmers said Democrats must prepare for a hostile environment where voting itself becomes a target.

Roadmap to success

Amid the warnings, Chalmers offered a roadmap for success — drawn directly from Ruben Gallego’s winning Senate campaign.

Gallego didn’t win by chasing trends or talking points. He won by showing up where no Democrat had shown up before.

• At cement plants at 5 a.m.
• At labor halls after overnight shifts.
• At boxing matches and Latino rodeos.

“Those weren’t photo ops,” Chalmers said. “They were voter contact.”

The campaign focused first on who Gallego was — a veteran, a dad, someone voters could connect with emotionally — before pivoting to issues. And it paid off.

“Authenticity isn’t a slogan,” Chalmers said. “It’s strategy.”

The Core Message for 2026: Affordability and Healthcare

Looking ahead, Chalmers said Democrats have a clear opening.

Rising costs, tariffs, healthcare rollbacks, and economic instability are already hitting Arizona families hard. Unlike past cycles, Democrats can now draw a straight line between Republican policies and real-world pain.

Healthcare, especially Medicaid and affordability, must be front and center, not in abstract terms — but in plain language, rooted in everyday life.

The Stakes Couldn’t Be Higher

With no U.S. Senate race on the ballot for the first time in a decade, national attention may shift — but the consequences in Arizona won’t.

• Control of the Legislature.
• The Attorney General’s office.
• Congressional District 6.
• Voting rights themselves.

“Turning Point worries me,” Chalmers said. “But I still feel optimistic — because we know what works.”

The lesson of 2026 is already clear: Show up. Tell the truth. Name the lies. And fight — everywhere.