by David Safier
As I posted Wednesday, Whitney Tilson, who runs Kase Capital hedge fund, is shorting K12 Inc. On Sunday, he explained why.
Before I go into Tilson's reasons for the short, I feel the need, once again, to ask for Craig Barrett's views on this. Barrett, Gov. Brewer's spokesman on education, president and chairman of BASIS charter schools, one of the prime movers behind the Common Core and rich, savvy ex-CEO of Intel, is also one of 10 members of the K12 Inc. Board. While he talks in public and to the press regularly, he has never, so far as I know, talked about K12 Inc. or its Arizona Virtual Academy for the record. Yet K12 Inc.'s Arizona school alone enrolls over 4,000 students, which is similar to the number of students enrolled in all Arizona BASIS charters combined — and that's only in Arizona. Certainly the subject deserves a mention from a high profile educational spokesman like Barrett.
Tilson goes into his reasons for shorting K12 Inc. at some length. They are based both on recent earnings and what he sees as an untenable educational model. He notes that "year-over-year revenue growth – critical for a stock trading at nearly 50x earnings – has been falling sharply over the past two years, and is projected to fall further in the next year (to 16%)."
He says that, while there are a small number of students who are well suited to the virtual school model, K12 Inc. needs lots of students, which means aggressive recruiting for students, most of whom are a bad fit. "Since going public in late 2007, numerous former employees have told me that K12 has adopted a growth-at-any cost mentality in order to support its richly priced stock."