Beltway “conventional wisdom” is an oxymoron – the media villagers are almost always wrong

Posted by AzBlueMeanie:

I have never figured out why the media villagers and Beltway bloviators have any credibility with the public nor why any of them actually get paid for their opinions. They are like the weather reporter: they make a predicition and when they are wrong, they blame it on the "weather." (I'm looking at you Jimmy Stewart.) Despite being wrong, they keep their jobs and continue to make predictions, often wrong. No accountability. No consequences. Now that's job security.

Their "conventional wisdom" media narratives are almost always wrong to the point that "conventional wisdom" has become an oxymoron. Get outside the Beltway bubble, boys. Stop talking to one another in a closed-looped "we're the smartest guys in the room" clusterf#@k" and go talk to real people.

For the past year we have been subjected to the "conventional wisdom" media narrative that Americans are angry and they want to "throw the bums out!" This is an anti-incumbency year, so naturally, the Democratic majority is in jeopardy. Republicans as well are threatened by the corporate Astroturf FreeedomWorks and Americans for Prosperity front group Tea Party oganizations, the modern-day reincarnation of the "angry white male" demographic to whom "Pitchfork" Patrick J. Buchanan once appealed.

Well, the first early primaries have been held and guess what? The incumbents seeking reelection won their party's primary, and the establishment candidates of the parties won over the "insurgent" challengers. The Tea Party candidates were shut out. And as is typical in party primaries, voter turnout was low. I guess all those angry Americans who want to throw the incumbents out of office got lost on the way to their polling place. NC, Ohio incumbents win; ex-Sen. Coats is Ind. victor:

Voters in North Carolina and Ohio kept their incumbents, and those in Indiana turned to an old Capitol Hill hand – Republican Dan Coats – in Tuesday's primaries despite the nation's bottom-barrel support for Congress and frustration with the Washington establishment.

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Turnout was exceptionally light in Ohio and North Carolina, a possible indication that the anger fueling voters across the country over economic woes, persistently high unemployment and Congress itself wasn't translating into votes – and, perhaps, the limited influence of the conservatives and libertarians who make up the fledgling tea-party coalition.

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North Carolina's director of the State Board of Elections projected turnout to be slightly above 2006 levels, when only 12 percent of voters cast primary ballots. Said elections chief Gary Bartlett: "I was hoping for more."

And this Tea party's candidates shut out in primaries:

Mark the first round down, shakily, for Republican incumbents and party establishment favorites.

With one race in Ohio yet to be settled, tea-party-backed challengers and other outsiders were shut out in competitive House and Senate primaries across three states on Tuesday, the busiest night so far in an election season of optimism for Republicans.

While some of Tuesday night's Republican primary winners struggled to prevail – former Indiana Sen. Dan Coats' comeback bid advanced with 40 percent of the vote in a five-way race – the results renewed a debate about the clout of the insurgents in the remaining primaries and on elections in the fall.

Will the "conventional wisdom" narrative now change? Of course not. The "smartest guys in the room" already decided how this election will turn out and they will keep repeating it, like the "big lie" theory of propaganda, until people hear it often enough to believe it is true. "That's our story and we're sticking to it."

Rachel Maddow delivered a well-earned smack-down to the "conventional wisdom" of the media villagers and Beltway bloviators on Wednesday.

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Excerpt Wednesday, May 5th – Rachel Maddow show:

OK. So primaries yesterday, election ‘10 is under way.

And so far, it is not going the way it‘s supposed to. When the actual news doesn‘t match the Beltway media common wisdom, that news that doesn‘t match the common wisdom has a tendency to disappear. We find that disappearing news and force it to reappear right here on this show — next.

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MADDOW: So yesterday, there were a bunch of primaries, in Ohio, in North Carolina, in Indiana. It is highly likely you did not hear much about them. Among other reasons, that may be because those elections did not fit the Beltway media political narrative of 2010.

That narrative is pretty simply and incredibly consistent. It goes like this: You can‘t win in this climate unless you are an anti-establishment candidate at the least and a tea party candidate if possible. According to everyone whose zip code starts with 200, in both parties, it‘s insurgent candidates with nontraditional backgrounds who are going to be upending incumbents all over the country left and right.

And that‘s a great story as long as you don‘t look at the actual news, the actual facts. In Ohio‘s Democratic Senate primary, for example, the candidate backed by the state and national party defeated the Democrat who was running to his left.

In North Carolina, North Carolina‘s incumbent Republican Senator Richard Burr drew three primary challengers. He ended up winning 80 percent of the vote. But the prototype for this anti-incumbent common wisdom could be found in none other than the great state of Indiana.

There you had the ultimate Republican insider, a former senator turned uber-lobbyist, Dan Coats running against the – for lack of a better term, the tea party candidate, Marlin Stutzman.

Now, before we all say Marlin, Marlin – Stutzman who, let me remind you of Sen. Jim DeMint – Sen. Jim DeMint Republican of South Carolina, and the man behind the Senate Conservative‘s Fund. The mission of that fund is to elect conservatives to the United States Senate, not just to help them poll better than they otherwise would have without his help. Not just to raise lots of money for them. The goal is to elect them.

Sen. DeMint is responsible for propping up the candidacy of Mr. Stutzman. According to a statement by Sen. DeMint today, his fund raised more than $200,000 for the failed candidate, Mr. Stutzman, in the last two weeks alone.

You will recall again that Mr. Stutzman lost to the establishment guy, Dan Coats. Sen. DeMint‘s record as an electoral soothsayer is not merely 0 for 1. He should be so lucky. Sen. DeMint also has that infamous New York congressional race to not boast about – New York 23.

Sen. DeMint backed the tea party guy, Doug Hoffman, who, despite flash-in-the-pan media coverage, lost that one, too. Actually, the Democrat ended up winning that one after Sen. DeMint got involved. Good going, Sen. DeMint.

Back in Washington, Sen. DeMint also took the lead on a policy issue that‘s being promoted as a huge electoral winner for Republicans and conservatives by party leaders like Newt Gingrich.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

FMR. REP. NEWT GINGRICH (R-GA), FMR. SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES: Every Republican running in ‘10 and again in ‘12 will run on an absolute pledge to repeal this bill.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MADDOW: Everyone‘s going to run on this. Everyone‘s going to run on this. Hours after President Obama signed health reform into law, it was Sen. DeMint who introduced a bill to repeal it.

So far, he‘s got not a majority of Republican senators to sign up as his co-sponsors. He‘s only got 20 even though the Republican minority leader on the house side said it was going to be his number one priority.

So is it possible, is there any way that you‘re not hearing about the conservative insurgent candidate, anti-incumbent face plant yesterday because it doesn‘t fit the narrative, because it‘s a square peg and the actual political environment is a round hole? A round hole lot of politics as usual?