Blake Masters’ Puppet Master Peter Thiel Offers to Bail Out His Failing Campaign With More Money (Updated)

Axios reports, Scoop: Peter Thiel offers to double down on Arizona Senate race:

Billionaire venture capitalist Peter Thiel has told the McConnell-aligned Senate Leadership Fund he is willing to make a multimillion-dollar investment in the Arizona race on the condition the super PAC finds matching funds, Axios has learned.

Why it matters: With less than a month until the midterms, a late cash injection of this scale could prove decisive in one of 2022’s key Senate battlegrounds. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s (R-Ky.) team has said they are open to the idea but haven’t yet raised the funds.

The big picture: The assumption in GOP political circles was that Thiel and SLF had abandoned Republican nominee Blake Masters, who has consistently trailed Democrat Mark Kelly in polling.

• Both sides were motivated by a recent CBS News poll showing Kelly’s lead has narrowed to three points, and the potential re-engagement reflects calculations that Masters may be in close enough range for money like this to close the gap.
• Kelly has enjoyed a massive fundraising advantage, raking in $52 million through the end of June — compared to about $5 million by the Masters campaign. Neither candidate has released their Q3 fundraising figures.

Details: Under the proposed arrangement, Thiel and SLF would together spend at least $10 million to boost Masters — with Thiel responsible for half of the final figure that the two sides agree on, according to a source with direct knowledge of the matter.

• Thiel spent $15 million to support Masters in the GOP primary, but hasn’t donated additional money to his Saving Arizona PAC since then. Earlier Wednesday, the PAC went up with a $2 million TV ad buy attacking Kelly, which was not funded by Thiel, according to a person familiar with the spot.
• The National Republican Senatorial Committee also announced last week it would make a “seven-figure investment” in the Arizona race.
• SLF spokesman Jack Pandol declined to comment.

The backdrop: SLF canceled $9.6 million in television ads reserved for the Arizona race last month, as Axios first reported, confident that other outside conservative groups would make up the difference.

• The move was preceded by a pair of phone calls in which McConnell (R-Ky.) and SLF president Steven Law urged Thiel to re-engage on behalf of Masters, fearing the candidate’s dismal fundraising and low favorability ratings would cost Republicans a key pickup opportunity, according to the Washington Post.

• Thiel rejected a proposal at the time to split the cost of funding Masters through the general election, citing his investments early in the cycle and concerned that the financing would be used as a Democratic talking point, the Post reported.

Between the lines: Thiel signaled at a recent Masters fundraising event that he was done spending on behalf of Ohio Senate nominee J.D. Vance, believing the Republican nominee is on track to win, according to CNBC.

• Vance, like Masters, is a former venture capital executive whose campaign Thiel has largely funded.
• The Ohio race against Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan is rated “lean Republican” by the Cook Political Report, while Arizona is rating “lean Democratic.”
• The proposal by Thiel and SLF to double down on Arizona comes days after Masters and Kelly squared off in the race’s first and perhaps only debate.

UPDATE: Politico reports, Thiel and GOP super PAC can’t reach agreement on Arizona Senate spending:

On Monday evening, Thiel reached out to Steven Law, who heads the Senate Leadership Fund, a McConnell-aligned super PAC, to propose a deal, according to a person familiar with the conversation. Thiel said that he and Law’s super PAC could each pump $5 million into the Arizona Senate race, where Thiel’s protégé, Blake Masters, is the Republican nominee running against Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly.

During the Monday call, Law told Thiel he would see if he would be able to rustle up the $5 million from donors to meet Thiel’s proposal — though he said an ask this late in the election year, when contributors were largely tapped out, may not be successful.

But on Thursday morning, Law got back to the billionaire to tell him that he’d been unable to find the donors to provide the needed funds, the person familiar with the talks said. The call was described as cordial.

Word of the negotiations between Thiel and SLF was first reported by Axios.

It’s unclear if Thiel now will spend on his own in the remaining time before Election Day, though Law urged Thiel during Thursday’s call to forge ahead with spending on the race. After contributing extensively during the primaries — aside from Masters, he also doled out $15 million to back another protégé running for the Senate, Ohio Republican J.D. Vance — he has kept his wallet shut during the general election season.

While Senate Leadership Fund has turned off the spigot in Arizona, Masters is still getting help from the party. Conservative groups, including Heritage Action, are spending money in the state. Masters also met with McConnell during a recent trip to Washington, where the Republican leader held a fundraiser for him.