Bringing the National Intelligence Estimate to the Districts

UPDATE: The Administration is predictably refusing to release anything but a redacted version of the Key Judgments section of the NIE, even while slyly implying through Administration members and proxies that the devil is in the details of the report. They had a pretty good strategy – release selected portions before any pressure to release the whole had time to build, then stonewall on the complete document citing sources and methods protection. Utter bullshit, of course. None of the NIE is based on HumInt of a sensitive nature for the simple reason that we are utterly unable to penetrate al Qaeda or the jihadi movement in general with agents, so we don’t have any damn sources to compromise. Juan Cole blows some fresh air into the debate with characteristic frankness.

UPDATE: The Administration has very quickly declassified unknown quantity of the Key Judgments of the NIE. That portion is already flooding the blogs. Note that this is NOT the entire NIE, only bare conclusions, not the intel supporting those conclusions.

The centeral bone of contention will be the assessment of Iraq:

The Iraq conflict has become the “cause celebre” for jihadists,
breeding a deep resentment of US involvement in the Muslim world and
cultivating supporters for the global jihadist movement. Should
jihadists leaving Iraq perceive themselves, and be perceived, to have
failed, we judge fewer fighters will be inspired to carry on the fight.

The portion that the Administration and its lick-spittles will focus on is that last bolded sentence. They will say that leaving Iraq now will make things worse and embolden the terrorists, relying on this key sentence. The inclusion of this sentence is assuredly the work of Negoponte. This is not an assessment of intel, it is an opinion based on fortune-telling.

The most important judgment overall, which tends to implicate the Administration for a lack of vision is the following statement:

Countering the spread of the jihadist movement will require coordinated multilateral efforts that go well beyond operations to capture or kill terrorist leaders.

In other words, America needs to lead by example, reach out with diplomacy, and develop and deploy carrots, instead of just a bundle of sticks.

UPDATE: Bush folds like a house of cards. This can’t be a good sign. New thinking is that perhaps Bush orchestrated the leak in order to have a reason to declassify. But, then again, maybe that’s just paranoia.

Via: Talking Points Memo.

With the stink around the April National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) growing in the national press, this seems like a perfect time to make this issue central in Congressional races here in Arizona. If the NIE concludes that the war in Iraq has made the threat of terrorism worse, that undercuts the major national security theme of the Republicans. The American people have a right to know, one way or the other.

All the Democratic candidates for Congress and incumbents here in Arizona should band together to demand disclosure of the NIE sufficient for the American people to decide what the document says. It is unfair and unconscionable for voters to have to make up their mind on such vital matters based on the sort of he-said-she-said propaganda blowing around in response to this NIE.

Such a demand directly bolsters Democrats claim to be the right choice for American national security and controlling terrorism. It puts the GOP on their back foot and makes them have to defend a cover-up of vital information. With the White House claiming that the NYT’s report is not representative of the complete document, we should really have a look at the complete document, or as close to complete as possible (and the Administration shouldn’t be the one redacting it). Even better, we’ll get a good look at the real consensus in the intelligence community about Iran’s nuclear capability, which this Administration seems determined to make the basis of the NEXT war.

If Democrats can pry out the information that Iraq is a terrorism disaster, and Iran is not an immediate threat, which information I am certain the NIE contains, the entire national security posture of the GOP begins to look like a calculated pose to scare voters into re-electing a Republican Congress.

Of course, there are contrary opinions about such a strategy of relying on the NIE to help make Democrats’ case.

Between me writing this and posting it, Ellen Simon, Democratic candidate for CD 2 against Dick Renzi, apparently had the same notion. Her campaign launched a press release calling for Dick to join her in calling for the NIE’s release:

Responding to
a bleak assessment by 16 separate American intelligence agencies that
the invasion and occupation of Iraq has made America less safe against
the threat of terrorism, Democratic nominee Ellen Simon formally requested
that Rick Renzi join her in asking the Republican Congress to release
the full report on global terrorism threats.

Simon declared, “For four
months the Bush Administration has been beating the drum about the Iraq
War making us safer, when, in fact, they knew that just the opposite
was true; the Iraq War is actually fueling international terrorism.
The non-classified portions of the full report on global terrorism should
be made public.” Simon continued, “We need some accountability.
I’m asking that Rick Renzi join me in asking Congress to release the
non-sensitive portions of the full report. The American people and the
residents of Arizona’s First District deserve to know the truth
about the global threats they face.”

The National Intelligence Estimate
– the first formal assessment of global terrorism by U.S. intelligence
agencies since the war began – reported that the Iraq War has made
overall terrorism much worse, hurt our fight against global terrorism,
and hastened the spread of Islamic radicalism across the globe.

“Regrettably, this National
Intelligence Estimate confirms that the War in Iraq is undercutting
our fight against global terrorism and making Americans less safe against
the threat of terrorism,” Simon declared.

Although the Bush Administration
has held, since April, the National Intelligence report, which asserts
that Islamic radicalism has metastasized and spread across the globe,
the administration continued to make unfounded claims that the war in
Iraq was making America safer.

“In the face of universal
agreement among national security experts that the Iraq War is making
us less safe, the Administration continues to stay the course. Stubbornness
should not be mistaken for strategy. We need new leadership in Washington
that will implement a tough, but intelligent strategy to protect America,”
Simon said.

It’s a step in the right direction, but unless a national, or at least state-wide coalition of Democratic candidates speak with one voice on this issue, it will get lost in the shuffle and fail to have the degree of impact it should.