Turning out the youth vote – you can make a difference

There have been numerous reports in recent weeks speculating about whether or not the youth vote will turn out in a midterm election. Historically, they do not. This election, however, may be different.

After The Parkland Shooting, Youth Voter Registration Surges: States with critical elections that may decide control of the U.S. Senate and House showed large increases in youth registration, including Pennsylvania (16.14 point increase), Arizona (+8.2 point increase), Florida (+8), Virginia (+10.5), Indiana (+9.9), and New York (+10.7).

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NextGen America, which was founded by California billionaire Tom Steyer, has put up $3 million in Arizona this year to register young people, specifically those aged 18 to 35, and get them to the polls. In Arizona, an effort to register young people to vote was a success.

They were aiming to register 15,000 new young voters this year and instead netted more than 21,000.

But history isn’t on their side — younger voters have the lowest turnout rates in Arizona.

A report from the Morrison Institute for Public Policy found only 19 percent of votes cast in the 2016 election in Arizona came from Millennials, while 37 percent came from Baby Boomers, despite the fact that there are more Millennials than boomers here.

Only 29 percent of Arizona Millennials voted during the 2016 election, the report said.

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Cut back on Fossil Fuels — and BS Propaganda — with “Yes” Vote for Prop 127

Voters in Arizona can confidently vote “yes” for Proposition 127, knowing that it will cut the use by state utilities of polluting fossil fuels like coal, oil and natural gas, and knowing that it will not cause an increase in electric rates.

There has been persistent false propaganda against the measure, asserting that Prop. 127 will cause electric rates to go up from $200 to $1,000 per year or that it bankrupt public schools or that it would somehow hurt air quality. None of this is true.

An example of these baseless arguments was the recent op-ed by Arizona Board of Regents member Karrin Taylor Robson who argued without evidence that Prop. 127 would costs schools millions. The article cited estimates by unnamed “public utilities.” If the article referred to a study from Arizona Public Service — the chief opponent of Prop. 127 — that study has been widely debunked.

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David Garcia and supporters call for a Progressive Direction in Arizona at an ASU rally with Bernie Sanders

Representative Ruben Gallego, Dr. David Garcia, and Senator Bernie Sanders at a Garcia for Governor rally at ASU’s Student Pavillion (photo courtesy of AZ Central)

Great enthusiasm filled the David Garcia for Governor Rally in the main gathering room at the Arizona State University Student Pavilion on October 23, 2018 as approximately 700 people heard speaker after speaker (including Dr. Garcia and Senator and 2016 Presidential candidate Bernie Sanders) electrified the crowd and passionately called for everyone to vote for progressive Dr. Garcia and other Democrats and get family, friends, and co-workers to the polls as well.

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John C Scott back on KVOI

Podcast: What You Don’t Know About the Primary Elections

In this 9/1/18  interview on the John C. Scott Show  broadcast on KVOI 1030 AM, Blog for Arizona writer Larry Bodine reveals his insights about the August 28 Arizona primary races. Topics include: Who turned out to vote in the primary election? Was it Millennials and Latinos? Astonishingly, 100,000 people voted for a convicted racist crook. … Read more

New Poll: Arizona is a ‘battleground’ state

First, a word from Sam Wang from the Princeton Election Consortium. What constitutes a good poll?:

Holidays are over. I see that journalists, including poll aggregators, are still focused on the Presidential horserace. As Zenger at Electoral-Vote.com has pointed out, sites such as FiveThirtyEight are under economic pressure to attract traffic. And there is nothing to attract eyeballs like a crazy Presidential race. Still, from a substantive standpoint, it might be more appropriate to spend efforts on, I dunno…issues? See this excellent critique of media coverage by Jeff Jarvis, which includes a good hard whack at the media obsession with “balance” and polls – basically, tricks to let reporters escape engaging head-on with substantive issues. If journalists insist on horserace coverage, at least focus on downticket races in Senate, House, and even state legislatures – and maybe write about some issues along the way. These races will determine the power dynamic in 2017 under the new President, whoever she may be.

clinton-trumpJust to remind everyone, variations in this year’s race are quite narrow, consistent with the last 20 years of partisan polarization. Polarization has made both the GOP and Democratic nominees unacceptable to nearly all supporters of the other party. In addition, Donald Trump is radioactive to about one-fifth of his own party. As a result, this year’s race is full of melodrama, but numerically stable. In 2016, the Princeton Election Consortium’s state poll-based aggregate has only varied between a median outcome of 310 and 350 EV for Hillary Clinton.

The Meta-Margin, which is defined as the front-runner’s effective lead using Electoral College mechanisms, is a very low-noise and stable measure – as opposed to single polls, which can be all over the place. You should generally ignore single polls, especially ones that surprise you. The Meta-Margin has varied between Clinton +2.5% and Clinton +6.5%, and is now at Clinton +4.0%, close to the season average of 3.8%. If it left the 2.5-6.5% range, that would be interesting. That has not occurred yet.

Oh, who are we kidding? The lazy media only does horse race coverage. Just as a thought experiment, I would love to see one election cycle where no polls are allowed, and the media is forced to actually report on something other than polls and the horse race.  It’s never going to happen.

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