One question perennially on Democratic minds is "who will the GOP’s 2008 nominee be?" It is a question that is far too often over-thought, leaving little certainty, and more questions than anwers. Since I am seldom prone to the disease of self-doubt, I will attempt to unequivocally answer this question.
Allow me to set the Board.
The GOP nominee will be determined by certain key power-brokers as much as by the primary voters. Access to key endorsements, media opportunities, fundraising, and key grassroots constituencies will determine the front-runners long before the first primary ballot is cast or the first caucus is convened.
The most obvious, and traditionally one of the most powerful power brokers in succession following a second term is the out-going President. In this cycle, the President’s power to annoint a successor may be deminished. Bush’s power will be at it’s lowest ebb if he is forced to resign or is impeached. He many have little or no influence in that case, but may attempt to secure a chosen succession via a new Vice-President. He may even be afforded such an opportunity if Cheney resigns for health reasons following the 2006 elections, as has been rumoured. Such a sucession plan would give the President much greater freedom in his choices, as the choice would only have to be confimed by the Senate, instead of almost immediately having to gain the approval of primary voters.
I don’t claim sufficient understanding of Bush’s psyche to predict what he might do if faced with such an opportunity. A few possible VP choices would be Condoleeza Rice, JEB Bush, Senator John McCain, Senator George Allen, heck, he might even nominate his wife. Who the hell knows what this guy might do in those circumstances; or what the Senate would let him get away with. I think it likely he would try to stay within his inner circle, so JEB and Condi seem the most Bush-like choices.
I don’t think that this sucession scenario is likely, however. More likely is that the President will just quietly let it be known through proxies who his favorite son is in the pre-primary season. His voice will carry much less weight with key constitutencies than would normally be the case, especially if his approval numbers continue to plummet among Republicans. The favorite son would then have to do extra duty to win the allegience, support, and endorsement of key constituencies than he would otherwise.
I am of the opinion that Bush has already signalled his choice of a successor in the famous 2004 hug of John McCain. McCain has a commanding position with most moderate and non-fundamentalist Republican constituents. McCain’s weakest area of support is among fundamentalists, whom he courting even now. As the Republican with the strongest national base outside of Bush’s own circle (Rice polls well despite the lack of an real electoral base that has even voted for her), it is my opinion that McCain has the money, the party support, the credibility, and inevitability that a candidate needs to become the nominee. As soon as Bush starts making those quiet noises in late 2007 about McCain, the party will be over.
