Central Arizona Project Board President Terry Goddard Discusses Arizona’s Drought and Water Shortage

Arizona and the rest of the Southwest are currently engulfed in a long heatwave trend that has:

• had a marked increase in the numbers of 100-degree days in Phoenix and other southwest localities.
• had little rainfall for relief.
• caused wildfires across the region.
• created dry spells that have caused water levels in Lake Mead (the largest reservoir on the Colorado River) to fall leading states like Arizona to compose drought mitigation plans.

On August 20, 2021, Luige Del Puerto of the Arizona Capitol Times hosted a panel to discuss the water shortage in Arizona caused by lowering levels at Lake Mead and on the Colorado River. The panel included members of the Central Arizona Project (Terry Goddard and Ted Cooke,) the Salt River Project (Jason Baran and David Roberts,) the director of water management for Arizona (Tom Buschatzke,) and the manager for water resources for EPCOR USA-a commercial water provider (Doug Dunham.)

During the course of the discussion, the consensus was:

• Arizonans, with their higher population in 2021, are actually using less water in the Grand Canyon state than in the 1950s.
• There will unless Lake Mead water levels rise, be a water shortage in Arizona in 2022 but it will affect the state’s agricultural areas, not cities or tribal nations.
• The effects of this shortage, thanks to planning and mitigation efforts, will not be felt by Arizona residents.
• Conservation is necessary to help withstand the shortage.
• New water conservation infrastructure investments will be necessary.
• Other measures, like cutbacks being implemented in California and Nevada, must be considered if the drought continues.

Later, CAP Board President (and former Phoenix Mayor and Arizona Attorney General) Terry Goddard graciously took the time to answer follow-up questions about the water shortage in Arizona, what happens now, and what the future may hold.

The questions and his responses are below.

1) In terms of years, what is the consensus of how long the water levels at Lake Mead will be low?

“I don’t think anyone can predict. What we know for sure is that we are in a long-running drought and the water demands are increasing in the Colorado River Basin.  How long the drought will last is not anything I have heard speculation on. Right now, our projections are year. We are in the eighteenth year of a drought. Lake Mead has dropped below 50 percent capacity. We have done well in planning and conservation and held off a Tier One shortage for the last three years, but we are facing an almost certain shortage next year and it is anyone’s guess what happens next. The overall trend is a shrinking supply and increasing demand which put us between a rock and hard place. With rising heat levels, snowfall may not replenish the Lake Powell water levels.”

2) To what extent will the 2022 water shortage in Arizona be severe in small and rural Arizona communities? Please explain. What specific areas of the state will be affected?

“The water shortage is general, but the impact will vary. For example, CAP provides water for Maricopa, Pima, and Pinal counties and we do not see any major issues for cities in those counties right now. The Salt River system is pretty flush. It does not have the same issues as the Colorado. Flagstaff is short of water. I cannot speak for other cities and towns outside of those three counties. Cochise and Santa Cruz have falling water tables. As Mo Udall once said, “We got plenty of water but in the wrong places.” Yuma and Mohave (two of the hottest areas of the state) are doing well because they have direct access to the Colorado River.”

3) Please explain at least two ways drought mitigation efforts over the last few years have helped reduce the severity of the water shortage.

• “The drought mitigation has focused on keeping water in Lake Mead by not taking it in the first place over the last four or five years. Thanks to the Gila River, Odham, and Colorado River Tribes for their conservation efforts, and cities like Phoenix have done their part as have the local agricultural districts, 190,000 feet of water has been saved.
• Drought Contingency Plan: where all the stakeholders got together and made these conservation efforts possible. It is a modification of earlier more from 2007. It will be looked at again in 2026.”

4) What are at least two conservation measures Arizonans across the state can be doing to help mitigate the severity of the looming shortage?

• “Cutbacks for a Tier One shortage (512,000 acres of water supply) We have to come up with another 300,000 and that is going to be from primarily agricultural interests along with some mitigation. Over and above what we have been leaving in Lake Mead, farmers have done a great job in investing and planning for the future with crop selections and drip irrigation.
• Unless there is a dramatic turnaround, 2022 will see a reduction in Maricopa, Pima, and Pinal water supplies for agriculture.”

5) What are at least two water sustainability measures State and local governments can institute to help mitigate the severity of the looming shortage?

• “Cloud seeding is one suggestion, but the jury is out on if that works. Does it increase the production of rain? I do not think so.
• Desalting seawater and cleaning some of the brackish water may be options.
• Importation from other rural basins although that may not be politically possible.
• Investing in drip technology for agricultural and residential landscaping.
• Evaporation reduction and think about how we shade parking lots and even substitute light color surfaces that will mitigate the heat effect. Putting solar panels over canals as has been done in India. For the small savings in evaporation, it is not worth it right now.”

6) What are at least two water cutback measures Arizonans should consider helping to mitigate the severity of the looming shortage?

• “Using reclaimed water and turf reductions at golf courses.
• New low flowing shower devices and flushing toilets.
• New approaches to desert landscaping.”

7) During the Capitol Times panel discussion on April 20, 2021, Doug Dunham of Epcor said that Arizonans use less water today than the smaller population did in the 1950s. Is that accurate? Please explain.

 “It is true. The per capita use of flood irrigation on the cotton fields in Maricopa County for example was tremendous then.”

8) Is there anything not covered in the first seven questions that the reader should know? Please explain.

“Arizona can pat itself on the back for our planning and conservation efforts, but it would be a big mistake to think we dodged the bullet. The drought is a big problem. We do not have an immediate crisis, but many farms will run dry over the next decade. But the reductions are something we planned for. We should not be overconfident. We need to ask what else could we be doing to conserve water? Are we planning appropriately? Those questions need to asked now so we do not have a really serious crisis in the future. We have to recognize that we live in a desert,  in a water-short environment.”