Colorado Is Important, But Take a Deep Breath.

Yesterday’s bombshell news that the Colorado state Supreme Court decided 4-3 that Donald Trump is ineligible to appear on the ballot for that state’s Republican Presidential Primary Election is echoing about the media today. But don’t get too exited: while this a historic political and legal landmark, it doesn’t mean what many are prematurely thinking it means. It DOESN’T mean that Trump cannot win the Presidency. It won’t block him from capturing the Republican nomination, and it won’t (necessarily) stop him from gaining Colorado’s electoral votes for President in 2024.

First and foremost, the decision is stayed pending possible appeal to Federal courts, specifically the US Supreme Court. It is far from certain how that possibility may play out. Personally and professionally, I find it unlikely that the votes and/or legal basis for cert actually exist: I don’t think SCOTUS will elect to review this case. Most importantly, the dissents in the case focus almost exclusively around state election law issues, which SCOTUS will be reluctant to reach down and overrule a state Supreme Court majority on. SCOTUS already has enough legitimacy issues dogging them, they don’t need to create another by upsetting the long history of deferral on such issues to state supreme courts. I also don’t think that the very strong factual record of a finding by clear and convincing evidence at trial that Trump engaged in insurrection under the 14th will be challenged. Absent such unusual undertakings by the federal courts, I don’t see that federal courts are likely to overturn the Colorado Court’s ruling.

Second, Trump doesn’t really need Colorado’s delegates to ensure his selection as the Republican nominee. Most likely, Trump will still take the nomination with this as barely a blip in his campaign. The real danger is the Colorado case becoming a precedent for many more states to disqualify him. I don’t think that the MAGA project to head off that possibility will focus on attacking the Colorado ruling; it will focus on every other state where the courts might follow suit and simply endeavor to delegimate the Colorado Court’s ruling politically and rhetorically – not legally.

Even if Colorado succeeds in keeping Trump off the primary ballot, that disqualification may (and likely will be) challenged more seriously only if he is kept off the Presidential general election ballot in November. SCOTUS may find some new arguments about the role of the federal courts in a general election that were not available to it in a primary contest.

In sum, this is likely to be just one move in a much longer lawfare battle across the nation and will, in itself, do nothing to prevent Trump from being elected President once again in 2024.

Take a deep breath. Stop hyperventilating about this. Make some popcorn and settle in for a long legal and political battle to come. This will be one front, but only one small part of the overall war to preserve American democracy from the Trump/MAGA fascist threat.