Democrats Can Win the Senate in 2022

Democrats have the advantage in next year’s Senate race as Trumpians are eating their own, resulting in the retirement of old-guard Republicans: Pennsylvania’s Patrick Toomey, Missouri’s Roy Blunt, and North Carolina’s Richard Burr.

Pennsylvania’s seat is rated by CNN as the state most likely to flip. With long-time Senator Richard Burr retiring, there’s a good chance Democrats can also score in North Carolina.

Wisconsin is another state likely to go Blue as GOP Senator Ron Johnson, an insurrectionist, is running in a state that voted for Biden. There’s a chance that Johnson won’t run.

• Of the 34 Senate seats up next year, Republicans are defending 20 to Democrats’ 14.
• The GOP must net just one seat to become the majority party.
• Not all 34 seats are competitive.

There are eight states we view as battleground territory:

1. Arizona‘s Senator Mark Kelly, called “a fundraising machine,” is the second Democratic incumbent who won a special election and is now running for a 6-year term next year, as Arizonans are well aware.

Arizona GOP Rep. Andy Biggs, an accused January 6 coup plotter who is weighing a run for Senate, acknowledged that Kelly would likely have more cash than any Republican who challenges him.

The Washington Examiner reported that state Attorney General Mark Brnovich is considering a run against Kelly rather than running for Governor.

Although Democrats despise him, he’d fare better than Biggs, as Brnovich dismissed claims of election fraud in Arizona, arguing that “if indeed there was some great conspiracy” to steal votes from fellow Republicans, “it apparently didn’t work.”

Biggs argued that the Arizona election shouldn’t be certified. He’ll probably win Trump’s endorsement, but he won’t win over Arizonans who voted for Biden and Kelly.

2. Pennsylvania’s Democratic front-runner, John Fetterman, who has a Harvard MBA, switched professions and became a social worker after mentoring an orphan, making sure his protege finished high school and graduated from college.

His campaign ad says, “I am proud to stand with the Steelworkers, the Building Trades, and all of the union workers in Pennsylvania, even when others turn their backs on them. I always have, and I always will.”

“Fetterman cuts a striking figure at 6-foot-8 with a shaved head and goatee, “The Washington Post’s Sean Sullivan reports.

“Tattoos on his arms feature the Zip Code of the old steel town of Braddock, where he was mayor, and the dates that residents lost their lives to violence during his tenure.”

Democrat Connor Lamb, a former Marine and federal prosecutor, has said he is considering a run to succeed Pat Toomey.

But Fetterman’s story—a man with a Harvard MBA who walks and quacks like a working man—is hard to beat.

3. North Carolina’s GOP Senator Richard Burr is retiring after serving as Senator since 2005. He announced in 2016 that he would not be seeking reelection in 2022.

Burr was one of seven Republican Senators to vote to convict Donald Trump of incitement of insurrection in his second impeachment trial in January.

Cheri Beasly, the first African American woman to serve as Chief Justice of the North Carolina Supreme Court, is running for the Democratic nomination. Democrats would be wise to endorse her as a barrier-breaking woman of color in a state that’s trending progressive.

4. Wisconsin’s two-term Republican incumbent Ron Johnson has not announced his retirement yet. However, since he is spewing the Big Lie, he is not likely to fare well in a state that voted for Biden.

5. Florida’s Republican Senator Marco Rubio is running for a third term. The race is no longer a shoo-in with Rep. Val Demings having announced last week that she’ll be contesting Rubio’s seat rather than run for Governor.

Demings distinguished herself as impeachment prosecutor and is considered the big-name candidate needed to beat a well-oiled machine politician like Rubio.

Warnock and Kelly: Huge War Chests

6. Georgia Senator Raphael Warnock won his seat in a special election runoff on January 5, but now must win a six-year term. Stacey Abrams is being drafted to run for Governor again, which would entice Black voter turnout, essential for Warnock’s win.

GOP Rep. Earl L. “Buddy” Carter is considering a run against him.

Carter is waiting for the former University of Georgia football star Herschel Walker to enter the race. Carter supports the Georgia football star, and so does Donald Trump.

The Two Most Vulnerable Candidates

7) Nevada’s incumbent Democrat, Senator Catherine Cortez Masto, is running for her second term. The Silver State is considered vulnerable, as Biden won the state by just two percentage points.

8) New Hampshire’s Senator Maggie Hassan, also running for a second term, is considered vulnerable, as well. She’s running in a state that’s trending Blue.

However, if Governor Chris Sununu decides to throw his hat into the ring, Hasson will move up in the ranks of “flippable” seats.

In Flux: Iowa’s Chuck Grassley, an antique who voted 88% with Trump, will be 95 at the end of his eighth term, is mulling retirement but won’t show his cards until September, October, or November, he says. (95 years ago Hitler published Mein Kampf.)

Montana’s Senator, Jon Tester, said he hated to say this on the record, “but if Grassley runs, he wins.”

Democratic Fundraising Beats the GOP

Roll Call’s Bridget Bowman wrote in April that so far, none of the four vulnerable Democrats have GOP opponents who matched their fundraising in the first quarter, according to reports filed with the Federal Election Commission,

Bowman also writes that “some House members weighing runs against Kelly and Warnock did not come close to the two Democrats, who are fundraising powerhouses after winning competitive special elections.”

Younger Electorate: A Windfall for Democrats

The Hill’s Will Reid reports, “There are signs that the emerging younger electorate is likely to provide a windfall for Democratic candidates.”

Among 30 to 39-year-olds, the gap is even wider: 53 percent are registered Democrats, while just 34 percent are registered Republicans.

“Without Gen Z and Millennials being both highly engaged politically and more supportive of the Democratic, Nancy Pelosi would not be speaker, Biden would not be President, Harris would not be the tiebreaker in the Senate,” said John Della Volpe, director of polling at the Harvard Kennedy School’s Institute of Politics.

Electoral History Looms Heavily Over Democrats

Despite the opportunities in next year’s Senate battle, “Electoral history still looms heavily over Democrats, the Atlantic’s Ronald Brownstein writes.

“Midterms don’t typically produce significant losses for the President’s party in Senate elections, but they are very much the rule in the House.

“Assuming there are no surprises in any of the pending special House elections, Republicans can win back the lower chamber if they gain five seats next year,” Brownstein writes.

“However, in a recent analysis circulated among Democratic activists, Michael Podhorzer, a senior official at the AFL-CIO, calculated that in the 41 midterm elections held since 1870, the President’s party has kept its House losses to fewer than five seats only five times.

“The prospect that Democrats can gin up strong enthusiasm among their base is the party’s biggest source of optimism,” Brownstein writes.

“In the meantime, Democrats are racing the clock to pass an agenda that rivals FDR’s and LBJ’s—in a country and a Congress divided far more closely between the parties than when those Presidents made their indelible marks on history,” Brownstein concludes.

One more thought: If Susan Collins’ election weren’t funded illegally and lavishly, Democrats might have won a 51-49 majority with Sara Gideon, the former Speaker of the Maine House of Representatives.

Maine voters should demand a special election.