11/3/20 UPDATE: General Election day totals show the GOP have taken the lead in ballot returns statewide by 22,285 votes and counting:
https://www.saguarostrategies.com/arizona-ballot-returns. Dems turnout so far is 70.1%, Republicans 65.5%. Stay tuned for tonight’s reporting. And into the week for the provisional ballots voted today.
Saguaro Strategies has issued a preliminary report on the # of ballots returned (Democrats, Republicans, others) for the upcoming General Election 2020. As of 10/20/20 total returned ballots are 1,089,090, with Democrats leading at 35.4% (477,954) to Republicans 24.6% (359,006).
You can click on the chart below for individual Congressional Districts, Legislative Districts, County races to see the # of returned ballots. These are not official voter tallies, but a count of the registered voter returns, according to this digital media company.
For example, check CD 6 where incumbent Rep. David Schweikert (R) is facing Democratic challenger Dr. Hiral Tiperneni. About 4,000 more Dems voters have returned their ballots so far, so it will likely be a close race.
Also watching the returns in LD 11 where the Dem return is at currently 45.7% compared to the Republican return at 25.9%. That LD 11 is a strong Republican stronghold, with two Democratic challengers for Senate and House, against all 3 Republican incumbents. Independent/Other turnout is at 25.2%.
You can also check out returns by age group, with the 65+ group leading the pack at 44%.
Who are Saguaro Strategies:
“WE HELP PROGRESSIVES WIN
Saguaro (Suh-Wahr-Oh) is a digital and targeted media firm for Democratic campaigns and progressive political organizations.
We’re experts at building digital programs from the ground up, leveraging data to maximize your impact and utilizing our design expertise to make your content stand out.
We make a difference on our races. We’ve helped flip some of the toughest congressional districts in the country. We’ve helped elect governors, mayors, state legislators, county supervisors and city council members. We’ve won ballot propositions and led progressive issue organizations.”
Director of AZ Operations is Adam Kinsey, former E.D. of Pima County Democratic Party and married to Alexis Tameron Kinsey, former Chair of the AZ Democratic Party. He is assisted by Sam Almy, Ad Operations & Data Strategist, who also used to work for the AZ Dem Party in Phoenix, as Data Director.
Now two weeks before the General Election, so Vote early if possible, on or before Nov. 3, 2020.
This is interesting about the early ballots:
Political Party: Other
Registered: 1,392,843
Requested: 993,515
Returned: 711,727
That’s a lot of registered voters who are not Democrats or Republicans and half of them have already voted.
So, somewhere around 3, 4, or 5 percent will go for a Green or Libertarian candidate, as usual.
I guess we have to pray the rest are mostly younger, liberal or left leaning.
Yes Liza, that’s the statewide # of voters registered as Others, at a current ballot return rate of 51.5%. I’m trying to figure out which way those voters are leaning for the close races in CD 6 and LD 11. Thanks.
GOP has taken the lead in early ballot returns, by about 22,000 ballots. Stay tuned for further updates tonight, and into the week:
https://www.saguarostrategies.com/arizona-ballot-returns