Election Day: Vote Like Your Life Depends On It, Because It Does

It’s finally here! Election Day.

If you have not yet voted, go vote like your life depends on it – because it does.

Indicative of nothing, Joe Biden was the first presidential candidate to sweep the general election vote in Dixville Notch since the midnight voting tradition began there in 1960. In midnight vote, Biden sweeps Dixville Notch. Trump takes another New Hampshire town.

I have been working elections since 1976. The one thing I have learned is that a huge voter turnout is not because people are happy with the way things are under the incumbent, they are turning out to make a course change.

Early voting in the 2020 election across the U.S. on Monday had already reached 71% of 2016’s total turnout, according to state data compiled by the U.S. Elections Project. This is indicative of where this election is headed.

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball‘s final Electoral College ratings show Joe Biden at 321 electoral votes and Donald Trump at 217.

Nate Cohn: “The final polls more or less comport with how we already viewed the race. Mr. Biden ends the race up by more than eight points nationwide — the largest lead a candidate has held in the final polls since Bill Clinton in 1996. He’s up by at least five points in states worth more than 270 electoral votes, the number needed to win. Beyond that, he’s got at least a nominal lead in states worth 350 electoral votes, and he’s just a 2012 polling error away from a sweeping landslide of more than 400 electoral votes.”

Charlie Cook at Cook Political Report:

National Journal has unlocked my column early, here it is, might need to fill out a form to access. Unlocked link: https://t.co/hVIxNV7YIp

— Charlie Cook (@CharlieCookDC) October 30, 2020

UPDATE: Taegan Goddard’s final electoral map of the 2020 presidential election — the consensus found by averaging the top forecasts — shows Joe Biden with 291 electoral votes, Donald Trump with 125 and another 122 across six states rated as Toss Ups.

Other forecasts:

• • • FiveThirtyEight gives Biden a 89% chance to win. (For context, the final FiveThirtyEight forecast four years ago showed Hillary Clinton with a 71.4% chance of winning).
    • Economist gives Biden a 97% chance to win.

Just in case Trump “poll watchers”, i.e., voter intimidation shows up at your polling location, notify the poll marshal at your location, and then call the Lawyers Committee for Civil Rights, which mans the Election Protection Hotline:

Legal volunteers will staff the non-partisan Election Protection hotlines live 5am until 8pm MST to answer questions and assist voters encountering problems voting. Leading up to the primary, the hotlines will be monitored for voice messages.

“The Election Protection 866-OUR-VOTE hotline is a resource for all eligible voters who face problems registering or voting, seek to report complaints or ballot shortages, or otherwise need information to meaningfully participate in elections in their community,” said Kristen Clarke, president and executive director of the Lawyers’ Committee for Civil Rights Under Law. “Election Protection stands ready to help ensure that everyone has the opportunity to exercise the fundamental right to vote.”

The Election Protection hotlines are:

• • 866-OUR-VOTE (English) – administered by the Lawyers’ Committee for Civil Rights Under Law
  • 888-Ve-Y-Vota (Spanish/English) – administered  by the NALEO Educational Fund
  • 888-API-VOTE (multiple Asian languages/English) – administered  by APIAVote & Asian Americans Advancing Justice-AAJC
  • 844-Yalla-US (Arabic/English) – administered by the Arab American Institute.

Election Protection works year-round, to help all American voters through field monitors, voter education and an expansive network of national partners and state advocates to respond to voters’ questions and concerns. The 866-OUR-VOTE hotline will be live starting on National Voter Registration Day until the November election.

Expect long lines during the early morning and late evening surges. Come prepared. Bring some bottled water, some snacks, and a folding chair if you think you are going to need it. Have your cell phone charged up and save your County Recorder’s Election Assistance number and the Voter Protection Hotline above, just in case. And wear a damn mask!

Now go and vote!