Electoral crisis looms as Mexico vote is too close to call

UPDATE 7/11: In a stunning reversal, Calderon pulled ahead of Obrador in the final stretch of the recount to reclaim a narrow 0.65% lead (236K votes out of ~41 million). The recount only retallied the polling box tallies, it did not recount the actual ballots, which is what Obrador is now demanding. Thousands have taken to the streets as Obrador refuses to concede the race, charging electoral fraud. There have been allegations that current President Fox used government resources to assist Calderon, that the PAN party was given access to voter information that only election officials should properly have, and that the computers used in the election count were manipulated.

But deeper issues are also in play. Bush and leaders of several other nations have already congratulated Calderon on his election, even though the Mexican courts have not ruled on pending issues. Are such actions the equivalent of meddling in the internal affairs of Mexico? If the leaders of Canada, France, England and Germany, for instance, called on Bush during the month-long period of uncertainty in 2000 to congratulate Bush on his election, would not many Americans have been outraged at the presumption? In addition, Mexico saw an unprecedented negativity in the campaigning of Calderon, leading some to compare the vilification of Obrador as a dangerous radical to the ‘Swift Boating’ of Kerry. Will the result of the suspicion of fraud, the negative vilifications, and the resentment of foreign (especially American) involvement in the process have the same strongly polarizing effect on Mexican politics we have seen in America? And does the Mexican election share causal roots with recent right wing victories in America and Canada?

Some consider the following ad from the campaign of Calderon to have been a turning point in both closing Obrador’s early lead, and in the coarsening of Mexican politics:

UPDATE 7/5: Obrador continues to lead by over 1 and 1/2% as the recount approaches 90% complete. It looks like Obrador might pull victory from the mouth of defeat by demanding a full and fair recount of the votes. A dairy on Daily Kos is tracking the returns.

UPDATE 7/5: Obrador pulls ahead by more than 2% with 69% of the recount compete. Election officials are including amost 3 million ballots that were previously rejected as spoiled where the voter’s intent is clear. This step alone is thought to have reduced Calderon’s previous lead to just .68%. Mexican financial markets are in tizzy over what seems now to be a likely Obrador victory. Why is it that Mexico, a "Third-World" country, can do a credible hand recount of all 41 million votes cast, but America can’t do the same for the roughly 120 million we cast in a Presidential election?

UPDATE 7/4: Obrador demands a vote-by-vote recount rather than the ballot box tally recount provided for in electoral regulations, saying only such a count can remove any doubt about the legitimacy of the outcome. The threat of popular protest still looms over Mexico as Calderon appears to have held on to his 1% lead, in contradiction to exit polls indicating a comfortable Obrador victory.

UPDATE 7/3: Calderon claims a narrow lead of just shy of 400K votes. Narrow margin may trigger recounts, delaying the result for weeks. Greg Pallast files a fresh report from the front lines of another theft of democracy in progress.

Link: Electoral crisis looms as Mexico vote is too close to call.

The race for the Mexican Presidency is begining to look distrubingly like America in 2000. The race is said by election officials to be too close to call until at least Wednesday. Meanwhile, both Calderon and Obrador are claiming victory, though both seem committed to accepting the outcome, though the rhetoric is flying hot and fast.

A very close race was widely feared due to the possibility that the declared electoral result could be marred by allegations of fraud, and that the supporters of the losing side might refuse to accept the outcome. There is widespread apprehension that an electoral crisis could lead to civil unrest and even violence.

Regardless of which way the vote ultimately goes, it appears likely that the legacy of this election will be further polarization within an already sharply divided electorate. It appears that the ‘Americanization’ of Mexican society may be destined to include the sharp and nearly even division of the electorate that we so enjoy here north of the border, only among three parties rather than two.