FEC Pre-Primary Report High-Lights Around Arizona

Note: I have arbitrarily decided to simply not talk about any campaign that hasn’t yet topped $50K. It’s not because they aren’t competitive, it’s because their little pile of money isn’t very interesting, and there are just too many of them. They are like baby sea turtles. They may make it to the ocean and adulthood, but the odds in following any one of them in the hopes that the predators won’t get him or her are just too daunting. Don’t complain to me, tell it to Darwin, babycakes.

CD 1:

Ellen Simon:

Ellen raised just $68K over the past two months. $49K from individual contributions and $19K from PACs. She loaned her campaign another $250K, bringing her total income for the period to $318K, with expenditures of $365K, leaving her with cash on hand of $334K with an outstanding self-debt of $525K.

My question is, why are Arizona Democrats such cheap-skates that candidates in difficult races like CD 1 and Senate have to either languish with tiny warchests or self-finance to be viable? Where are our networks of wealthy Democrats putting it on the line to finance serious campaigns against GOP incumbents? I know many Democrats have plenty of money. Get out your damn rolodexes and checkbooks!

Dick Renzi:

Dick raised $118K this period (most of which, $67K, is from PACs, so Dick has officially switched from representing Virginia, er… Arizona citizens to representing special interests), and spent $167K on campaign toys, leaving his cash drawer with $785K. However, as I’ve pointed out before, there is still $428K in self-debt on Dick’s books from his 2002 race. That cash has long since been spent, so his cash on hand is vastly inflated by this unretired debt. He also owes his vendors and lawyers in the neighborhood of $100K. I’d be very surprised if he has more than $250K in spendable cash. Dick’s in trouble.

Leadership, special interest, and ideological PACs are keeping Dick on life support. My favorite is the "Every Republican is Crucial PAC", which gave Dick $10K for the cycle. Isn’t that just a precious name? Even though Dick is a corrupt sack of carpetbagging shit, he’s still a Republican, so he’s cruicial. Reminds me of a song. Anyhow, ERICPAC is the leadership PAC of Rep. Eric Cantor of Virginia, the GOP’s Chief Deputy Whip, so Cantor’s really just supporting another Virginia Congressman.

CD 2:

Trent Franks:

Trent is living off the land. He raised just $38K (almost all of it, $29K, from PACs, so he too has official switched from representing Arizonans to special interests), spent only $34K, and has just $84K on hand with debt obligations of over $300K. I guess he doesn’t expect any serious challenge in November. Could be he’s right, but there are some very crafty little sea turtles making their way down his beach…

CD 3:

Herb Paine:

Herb barely made my cut-off by raising $66K in total for his scrappy challenge of Shadegg. He’s got $38K on hand right now. If he can best Don Chilton in the primary and attract some more money in the month before the general, he could be a surprising little sea turtle.

John Shedegg:

The incumbent raised $88K in the past two months. Just over half of it $47K came from individuals, so at least Shadegg hasn’t crossed my entirely arbitrary line to join the "Representative Inc." crowd, yet. With 340K in the bank and no debt, Shadegg is ready to bring it.

CD 4:

Nothing interesting here. No opponent. Pastor is well-financed and sassy.

CD 5:

Harry Mitchell:

Harry has almost popped a million. He’s raised $935K so far, $155K in this period ($109K from people, $45K from PACs). He’s spent only $148K, and sits on a warchest of $672K, the most enviable position of any Democratic Congressional challenger in Arizona. Harry is no baby turtle; he’s a beak-snapping incumbent’s nightmare.

JD Hayworth:

Hayworth isn’t rolling over and taking it. He’s raised a total of $1.881 million, $518K of it in this period (roughly $300K from humans, $200K from PACs), and spent $90K, leaving $1.474 million in the bank. You can bet your ass he’ll spend all of it on a massive air war and direct mail blitz (I’m sure before the franking blackout he abused the hell out of his account, too). Harry has his work cut out for him: he’s going to be out-spent 2:1. But, money isn’t everything, especially when the incumbent is a slime ball.

CD 6:

Nothing interest here. Flake abides.

CD 7:

Raul Grijalva:

It’s really not an issue. The only way Grijalva loses this seat without redistricting it is to be caught with a choir boy. He’s not raising like a challeged incumbent. He turned up $50K, spent $59K, and has $168K in the bank. He’s not worried, and with good reason. Look at the opposition…

Ron Drake:

I’ll give Ron this: he’s tall and he’s tan. He meets the contemporary qualifications for office. I don’t know where he spends his money though (bronzer maybe?). He’s raised $84K in total, $30K of this period, and spent $24K. His cash on hand leaves something to be desired, however. He’s only got about $6K left. Hey! GOPers! Give this man some damn money. He’s going in the ring with a gorrilla for you guys. You could at least give him a decent purse for getting his head handed to him.

CD 8:

Done that.

Senate:

Pederson:

Pederson has raised a total of about $8.223 million, much of it self-financing. See my early diatribe about cheap ass Democrats. This period brought in $2.212 million, $2.031 million of it being Jim’s own wallet. He spent about $2.434 million in the period and has about $1.496 million in hand. I wouldn’t fret that number, though. I think there will be a large number of 24-hour notices of candidate contributions before the end. Jim’s not going to lose this one for lack of financing.

Kyl:

Kyl doesn’t file a pre-primary, so we don’t know what he’s been up to for the past two months. We do know that he had raised $9.6 million at that point. My guess is he’s up to 12 and heading for 14 or 15 by the end. We also know that he had about 7.1 million cash on hand last we got a look. Bang another five on top of that and that’s the size of the media monster we’re facing. You won’t be able to escape Kyl ads in the last weeks of this thing, especially in the Phoenix media market.