Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) is leading both former Arizona gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake (R) and Sen. Krysten Sinema (I-Ariz.) in a hypothetical three-way race for Sinema’s Arizona Senate seat, according to a new poll.
A poll from the Democratic-leaning firm Public Policy Polling, which was commissioned by Gallego’s campaign, shows Gallego receiving 41 percent support, Lake receiving 36 percent and Sinema receiving 15 percent in a hypothetical three-way matchup. A separate 8 percent of respondents said they were not sure.
Gallego also polls ahead in several other hypothetical three-way matchups. Between Gallego, Sinema and Republican Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, the Arizona Democrat received 40 percent, Lamb received 31 percent, Sinema received 16 percent and 13 percent said they were not sure.
Between Gallego, Sinema and former Arizona Senate candidate Blake Masters (R), Gallego received 41 percent, Masters sat at 31 percent and Sinema received 17 percent; 11 percent were not sure.
The poll found, however, that a match-up between only Gallego and Lake would be tighter — Gallego sat at 48 percent, Lake at 43 percent, and 9 percent said they were undecided. The polling difference between Gallego and Lake is just outside of the poll’s margin of error, which is plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.
Lake is expected to announce today that she will be running for the Arizona Senate seat.
Lake has dangerous views and policies:
- Lake backed a ban on abortions without exceptions.
- Lake wants to end Social Security and Medicare.
- Lake has been called “one of the nation’s leading conspiracy theorists,” with fringe ideas like recording children in classrooms.
- Political analysts say “her hard-right views are not palatable to the Arizona electorate at large.”
The “GOP fears Kari Lake bid could cost them Arizona Senate race”
- Republicans said they have “deep concerns” about Lake’s candidacy and “fear they may blow it again.”
- The Former Yuma County Republican Party Chair called her a “grifter and a sore loser.”
Highlight’s of Lake’s extremism:
- Kari Lake Calls January 6th “A Staged Riot” and a “Fedsurrection”
- Kari Lake Previews Senate Campaign: More Election Conspiracies
- Kari Lake Joins Fellow Conspiracy Theorists, Court Case and Campaign Losers at “My Pillow Guy” Mike Lindell’s “Election Summit”
- Despite Women’s Equality Day, Kari Lake Believes Women “Aren’t Equal To Men”
Most voters don’t want Sinema to run
Sinema has largely stayed mum on her plans. But the polling suggests that Sinema’s pathway will be no easy feat. The Public Policy Polling poll found that while 23 percent said the Arizona independent should run for reelection, while 58 percent said she should not.
Sinema’s favorable rating sat at 26 percent, compared to an unfavorable rating of 52 percent. Gallego’s favorable rating is at 38 percent, with a negative rating of 27 percent. In comparison, 35 percent said they aren’t sure — suggesting the Arizona Democrat may essentially be unknown to some voters in the state.
Arizona is among a handful of key swing states that will determine control of the upper chamber in 2024.
The Public Policy Polling, commissioned by Gallego’s campaign, was conducted Oct. 6-7 with 522 Arizona voters surveyed. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.
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My opinion on polls is that people forget them in 5 minutes. In today’s TikTok era when most people have the attention span of a gnat, voters decide how they’re going to vote about 5 minutes before they get in the booth. If they bought gas on the way and are mad about the price, they’ll take it out on Biden. If they got laid that morning and are in a good mood, they’ll vote for whomever their partner told them to vote for. If they see a hot chick/chuck with a Democrat button, they’ll vote for Dems. Voting, like most politics, has become a performative act to lay claim to a “feel good” vibe and show you’re cool.
Well, some pollsters are better than others. But polls do provide information over time and it would be a huge mistake for the Democrats to downplay Joe Biden’s low approval ratings for two of the three years he’s been president. In a state like AZ, where he won by such a narrow margin, an unenthused electorate could result in lower voter turnout in 24 and AZ could go red.
On the other hand, the AZ Senate race might invigorate AZ voters and result in high voter turnout. I would say Gallego is going to need somewhere around 100 million to make that happen (same as Kelly and Warnock).
Either way, whether you believe polls or not, the nation hasn’t warmed up to Biden as the beloved old geezer president, nor are they looking forward to a Biden/Trump rematch. And Biden’s VP is no more beloved than he is outside of the KHive on Black Twitter(X). What the Democrats do have going for them is the dysfunction within the GOP.
If I were a really young person, I would be horrified by the “leadership” in this country and how the future is being impacted.
“…the nation hasn’t warmed up to Biden as the beloved old geezer president,…”
Think a large part of that is the Biden Administration expecting the media to highlight their accomplishments for them, which hasn’t been happening. Seems they’re waking up to that fact. A good sign is his campaign has opened a Truth Social account, following the VTY and directly rebutting the garbage he regularly spews there.
Polls aren’t votes, but they probably can and should influence candidate decisions, hence my wish that polls be accurate.
Candidates shouldn’t base their actions solely on polls, but neither should they be ignored.
Not a good poll, but in the interests of accuracy, we should back out the numbers for MAGA types.
Their opinions are set in stone – they’ll get their hate on for anyone who isn’t Dear Leader.
Yeah, but Biden’s approval rating has been consistently low.
It’s anyone’s guess what this means and how it affects the election next year. And because Biden is so old, it doesn’t help that Kamala Harris also polls low.
I hope the AZ Senate race isn’t affected by this.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/
Biden approval rating near record low in new poll
BY SARAH FORTINSKY – 10/18/23 11:18 AM ET
President Biden’s overall approval rating dropped to 37 percent in a poll released Wednesday — a near record-low for the president as he heads into an election year.
The latest CNBC All-America Economic Survey, conducted Oct. 11-15, showed Biden’s overall approval rating at its second-lowest point in his presidency, 1 point higher than the record-low 36 percent approval in July 2022.
Biden’s disapproval rating rose to a record-high of 58 percent, 1 point above the disapproval rating in July 2022.
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4262543-biden-approval-rating-near-record-low-in-new-poll/