Graf, the NRCC and the GOP

UPDATE 9/24: The DCCC has also pulled national funding from the race. It seems likely that both parties are going silent to await further developments in the district.

I don’t buy it.

I’ve seen the irrational exurberance among Dems inspired by the NRCC’s decision to pull over 1 million of scheduled advertising in CD 8, and I’m not having any of it. Some think that the NRCC pulling their ad buys means the GOP has given up on Graf and CD 8. Some even think that somehow the DCCC had some influence over the decision. Bullshit. There’s no doubt that the NRCC did this, but what it means and what is coming next is completely unknown. Tom Reynolds, the head of the NRCC, says the move is part of a confidential strategy. Whatever. I know just one thing: the GOP won’t be throwing in the towel in a Republican plurality swing district they’ve held since its creation.

No. Fucking. way.

There is not the merest possibility that the GOP is rolling over and giving up on CD 8 because they think Graf is ‘unelectable’. The polling is what it is, but it doesn’t mean the race is over – it’s just a hard sell. The GOP knows they’ll have to scrap for every seat to hold Congress this year. There’s no way they are walking out on Randy just because he’s an idjit with ties to racists (despite his protests) and militias. The GOP has unashamedly run much worse candidates than Randy Graf with a straight face. They’ve come back from worse deficits, and they’ve proven they are completely without scruples as to how they win. The fact that Graf is so far behind is just more incentive for him and the GOP to go very negative on Gabby, very soon. And the DCCC’s negative ads on Graf give him a ready-made excuse to do it.

Nor does the fact that the RNCC opposed Graf in the primary signify squat. The party needs a reliable Republican vote and they’ll spend whatever it takes on whomever their nominee is, 19 points down or no. You can be sure that Graf was ready as soon as the count was official to kiss and make up and cut whatever deal needed to be cut to unify the party behind him. Obviously, there are some rifts that can’t be healed, but Graf wasn’t blowing smoke or putting on brave face coming back from DC this week when he said that his meetings were productive and the party is behind him. Speaker Hastert is even holding a fundraiser for him. Rove and Salmon are coming down on September 29th to host a fundraiser luncheon in the District. No, friends, the GOP may be rolling over and playing dead, but it is certainly just a pause, not a surrender.

There are plenty possible of reasons why the NRCC may have made the move they did. One of the best suggestions I’ve heard is that they don’t want to be seen as endorsing the immigration positions Graf represents. That could make compromises difficult later on. It could be that instead of going pro-Graf, they are going all anti-Giffords. They may have pulled the buys because they want to hammer the last weeks of the campaign with a smear campaign on Gabby. In any case, the NRCC isn’t the only way the GOP can send Graf money and support, by any stretch.

There are literally unlimited means by which the GOP can support their candidate without making the institutional statement that NRCC support makes. Does that approach hurt Graf? Maybe. It might also help his outsider credibility. With a 53% unfavorable rating for the Republican Congress, it might be smart to run as the angry reformer storming the bastions of the institutional party. The NRCC snub might piss off and motivate Graf’s nativist base, which also might help him. What it doesn’t do is deprive Graf of any financial resources. The GOP can easily funnel money to Graf through a variety of means, limited only by their election lawyers’ imaginations.

CD 8 is also the test-bed of the new Right Wing populism that has coalesced around the immigration issue and the Minuteman militia. If Graf loses, the momentum of that movement is threatened, and they know it. To continue as a force in GOP politics they have to elect a chosen candidate: Graf is that candidate. Gilcrist went down in California and another loss would be a body blow to the movement. They have to prove that they hold the keys to the GOP electorate. Nativist sympathizers across the nation are going to open their wallets over the next month to try to elect Graf. He is THE immigration candidate for the whole movement. That is not an inconsiderable asset, even if the NRCC slights him.

I think that the race is Gabby’s to lose, as I said when the ‘Clinton’ poll came out. But that is a long way from being in the bag. And this NRCC action that is stirring such a buzz is only sound and fury, signifying nothing. Graf will have the resources he needs for the fight. And Graf and the GOP will be bringing their best game, have no doubt.