Graf – Giffords Race Narrowing?

Link: RealClearPolitics – Polls.

The latest Zogby-Reuters poll is showing a narrowing gap (8 points) between Graf and Giffords. Graf basically hasn’t moved at 37%, but the poll is reading a drop off in support for Giffords to 45% and concominant increase in undecided voters to 16%

The poll was taken between 9/25 and 10/2 from a sample of 500 likely voters with a MOE of 4.5%. The polling was conducted over too a long a period of time for my taste, but the result is none-the-less troubling if it presages a trend toward former Giffords supporters stepping back into a undecided territory. This result is still within the extreme margins of previous polls and may possibly represent only an expected sampling variation, and not actual movement in the electorate. But it could be the other way, too.

If this trend holds up in multiple polls, this might be a tightening of the race, though representing mostly a drop-off from Gabby to undecideds, rather than any meaningful gain for Graf. I’ve heard rumors of a as-yet-unreleased poll from UofA’s KUAT showing the gap between Graf and Giffords as narrow as 6%, which would confirm a trend, but I haven’t got solid sourcing on that as yet and am looking into it.