I’m watching the returns at Nimbus in the heart of Tucson. I’m surprised by a few of the returns so far, but mostly on the Republican side. Huckabee is having a heck of a good night, especially the West Virginia near shutout of McCain. McCain got 1%!
Looking at the McClatchy Arizona poll taken Jan 30 – Feb 1, Obama and Clinton are statistically tied at 41-43 with a 5% margin. That’s a dead heat. But Obama holds a very narrow favorability edge among likely voters which might translate into an edge among undecided voters, where I think the Arizona contest will be decided.
A small anecdotal that indicates a some potential softness in Clinton’s support: an older female friend who had been planning to vote for Clinton got a crisis of conscience in the polling booth today. She decided at the last minute to support Obama instead because she felt he would attract more young people to the process and be able to change things more decisively. The young deserve a chance to save the world, is how she put it.
The polls just closed, so we’ll soon see if my gut is any use whatsoever when the first returns come in.
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