The Manchester, New Hampshire Republican Committee reports that their GOP straw poll resulted in an astounding win for Ron Paul with 66% of the vote. The next nearest competitor was Fred Thompson with just 10%!
This points to a possible upset in NH far more disruptive of the GOP status quo than McCain’s 1999 upset victory over Bush. Indeed, the signs are pointing to a revolt among GOP voters on par with the Dean surge in 2003-4 that very nearly led to an upset in the 2004 Democratic nomination. Note the strange symmetry that both Howard Dean and Ron Paul are doctors with two first names… spooky!
It looks like the GOP is going to have to play some hardball to keep the nomination out of Libertarian hands. Expect to see even more efforts on the part of mainline candidates such as Thompson, Giuliani, Romney, and even Huckabee, to marginalize, demonize, and browbeat Dr. Paul and his supporters.
I gotta say, even though many Dems don’t understand my support, that Ron Paul has my full support to be the GOP nominee. His message of peace in the heart of the war party is, by itself, a significant contribution to the American political discourse and world peace. He’s forcing the GOP to include a critique of the security policies of the Bush era in its internal conversation, and to justify their anti-civil rights, pro-war, terrorism-baiting cant. That is far more powerful a positive influence on the GOP and Republican voters than anything any Democratic candidate can achieve.
The longer Dr. Paul can last and the more he can prove himself viable, the less likely it is that the general election will just be a pose off between candidates trying to prove "who’s your daddy." Democrats tend not win such pissing matches, in case you hadn’t noticed. Therefore, Dr. Paul is doing Democrats a tremendous favor by showing GOP primary voters that there is a thoughtful and responsible alternative to perpetual siege state his confederates seem intent on creating.
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republican straw polls are typically farces, where candidates waste a whole bunch of money on getting only a couple dozen votes, and they’re usually won by whoever could afford to bus in the most supporters or whoever’s supporters were crazy enough to come in from all over, like Ron Paul’s.
the results of this are not at all representative of what the spectrum of Republican voters actually feel, and, no matter what any crazy libertarian might try to tell you, Ron Paul’s polling numbers are still smaller than the margin of error.
He is honest, and he’s said some things that even the Democrats haven’t had the guts to say (i.e. that it is our own policies in the middle east, especially our meddling in other countries’ affairs that has gotten them to hate us so much.)
That said, I couldn’t support him because of what he is serious about doing to the social safety net. Guys like Paul and Jeff Flake are useful for making Republicans stop and challenge their own dogma, but God help us if they ever got any real power.
He’s said he won’t do that. Of course, he has to say that, but Dr. Paul strikes me as an honest guy, whatever else he might be – a rare thing in politics. If he did run as an Independent, hell yeah, he would cut into the Republican base and independents far more than he would take Democratic votes.
Question is: if he is well funded and runs as an Independent, would he cut into the Republican vote like Perot did in 1992?