Many things can happen between now and November 2024.

However, if the political winds maintain their present trajectory, Democrats can probably expect a good night when the Presidential and Congressional races conclude in 2024.

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Why?

Because what was once the Party of Lincoln is still in a civil war with itself with Donald Trump holding a significant portion of the Republican base within his control.

If he wins the “Republican” Primary, many of what is left of the sane wing of that party and Independents will either flock to the Democrats and vote for either Joe Biden (or whoever else wins the 2024 nomination) or stay home.

If he loses the “Republican” Primary to either Trumpist pretenders like Ron DeSantis, Ted Cruz, or Josh Hawley or actual Never Trumper candidates that have proven they can govern like Larry Hogan, Phil Scott, or Charlie Baker, the twice impeached former President’s cult followers will likely stay home and deny any nominee a chance to prevail in states like Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Furthermore, Democrats would probably recapture the House with many of the tight races from the 2022 cycle, like Arizona’s First and Sixth Congressional Districts, flipping blue.

Democrats would undoubtedly maintain their narrow control of the Senate. However, seats like  Kyrsten Sinema (or whoever the nominee is,)  Sherwood Brown, Joe Manchin (or whoever the nominee is,) and Jon Tester will need massive grassroots support and cash to keep them.

Expect Democrats also to prevail in purple legislative districts that they just barely lost this last 2022 cycle.

Democrats should take these next two years to remind the people that they have the ideas that will move people forward and lift them up.

They also have to showcase that Republicans have no forward agenda that will benefit the populace or country.

With the former Party of Lincoln in its current reactionary political condition, this should not be difficult to do if the political winds remain like they are.

 

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