Is the Arizona Governor’s Race a Toss-Up?

Governor Katie Hobbs is amplifying her 2026 re-election efforts, preparing for a contest against two dreary MAGA opponents.

Her potential opponents are two MAGA toadies: Andy Biggs, aka “the male Kari Lake,” and Karrin Taylor Robson, who is a billionaire corporate developer and longtime lobbyist who spent $20 million of her own money, only to lose to Kari Lake in the 2022 Republican primary.

Democrat Katie Hobbs was elected in 2022, winning narrowly with 50.33% of the vote (17,117 votes).

“Rep. Andy Biggs is the polling frontrunner in the GOP primary, but businesswoman Karrin Taylor Robson has significant personal resources at her disposal. Trump ultimately endorsed both candidates after previously signaling his support for Robson last year,” a nonpartisan analysis by Inside Elections reports.

“1st District Rep. David Schweikert recently floated a gubernatorial bid, but it’s not obvious what opening the Scottsdale congressman would have. And he’d be vacating a swing House seat at a moment when the White House has been pressuring vulnerable members to stay in their districts rather than run statewide,”

“Hobbs won a narrow victory in 2022 but will have to contend with Arizona’s persistent GOP lean. She has been stockpiling cash ahead of the general election and could enjoy a significant financial advantage over Biggs, though likely not Robson. Toss-up.”

Hobbs is way ahead in fundraising

Hobbs’ fundraising lead over her potential opponents continues, with still more than a year until both the primary and general elections. Her campaign raised more than $1.3 million in fundraising in the second quarter of 2025, bringing her total cash on hand to $4.7 million. 

The campaign reported that 93% of the donations were under $100, and half of the donations to the campaign in 2025 came from first-time donors.

Democratic state legislators have consistently endorsed Hobbs for her leadership and policy outcomes, including Medicaid expansion, housing initiatives, and protections for reproductive health.

National organizations like EMILY’s List and the Democratic Governors Association have highlighted Hobbs’ effectiveness in brokering bipartisan agreements, repealing outdated laws, and supporting working families.

MAGA fundraising is weak

Robson’s campaign brought in more than $570,000 in donations in quarter two, a decrease from her more than $800,000 haul in the first quarter of 2025. Robson also loaned $2.2 million of her own money to the campaign, roughly the same amount the campaign has spent on TV ads so far this cycle. 

Her campaign now has more than $870,000 in cash on hand, but is likely to see more funds from Robson herself. She self-funded her first run for governor in 2022, a race that broke both campaign fundraising and spending records in Arizona. 

Biggs is trailing the two in fundraising this year, bringing in a little more than $230,000 in quarter one and around $429,000 in quarter two. He is also spending less than Robson and is left with more than $430,000 in cash on hand. 

Despite receiving an endorsement from President Donald Trump in April — even though Trump also endorsed Robson in December — Biggs has not been able to capitalize on fundraising. Many political consultants have noted that, since Biggs entered the race, his years of running in a safe Republican congressional district have not provided him with much experience in fundraising.

Governor Hobbs’ Key Accomplishments

Governor Katie Hobbs has focused on making Arizona the best state to live, work, and raise a family. She has created jobs that pay well, lowered costs for everyday Arizonans, and fought for our Constitutional rights.

Hobb’s accomplishments include:

• Growing a Thriving Economy. Since Governor Hobbs took office, Arizona’s economy has grown by more than 100,000 jobs, resulting in the state’s lowest unemployment rate in history and the highest number of Arizonans employed ever.
• Lowering the Cost of Housing. Hobbs secured a historic level of investment in housing, including $165 million in FY24 to create thousands of units of affordable housing for working-class Arizonans in the first year alone.
• Securing the Border and Keeping Communities Safe. She launched Operation SECURE, deploying the National Guard and Arizona State Troopers to the border and establishing a Border Coordination Office in the Department of Homeland Security to coordinate border operations.
• Investing in Public Education. She secured more than $675 million to improve and construct school facilities, continuing to fund the School Facilities Division at its highest point in 15 years.
• Securing Arizona’s Water Future. She canceled one Saudi-owned Fondomonte lease in Butler Valley and refused to renew three others to stop unchecked groundwater pumping.
• Creating a Resilient and Sustainable Arizona. Hobbs secured $21.5 million to invest in projects to enhance the reliability and resilience of the electric grid, thereby preventing future outages and ensuring reliable electric service to Arizonans.
• Protected women’s reproductive healthcare rights. She championed and signed legislation to repeal the state’s Civil War-era total abortion ban. She also signed an Executive Order to protect doctors and women who provide, obtain, or assist with an abortion from being prosecuted by extremist county attorneys.
• Connecting Communities to Broadband. Hobbs invested $1 billion in federal funds to ensure all Arizonans are connected to quality, affordable, high-speed internet, especially in Arizona’s rural and Tribal communities.

Stacy Pearson, a Democratic consultant, said, “Hobbs’ fundraising shows the recent party spats either aren’t reaching or aren’t deterring potential voters.

“It shows how much we can get stuck in our own echo chamber,” Pearson said. “The average voter has no idea who the party chair is in Arizona.”