KAET/Cronkite Poll on State Ballot Measures

The same universe as the KAET/Cronkite Statewide Candidate poll also looked at upcoming ballot measures. The same 3% MOE and methodology applies to these results. I’ve color coded the measures according to the recommendation of my guide to ballot measures. The poll focuses mainly on the most confusing meausres, especially those pairs of measures in which the sponsors of one have put up the meaure, either by initiative or referendum, to muddy the waters and block an alternative measure. Examples are 201 and 306 on smoking bans, and 105 and 106 on state land reform.

1. Proposition 201 would prohibit smoking in all public places,
including places of employment. It exempts tobacco shops, outdoor
patios and designated hotel /motel rooms. It also imposes a two-cent
per-pack tax on cigarettes to pay for enforcement. Will you probably
vote
   

1. for – 57%
2. against 33%
3. undecided 10%

   

2
. Proposition 206 would prohibit smoking in all public places,
including places of employment. It exempts bars with separate
ventilation systems that prohibit minors, tobacco shops, outdoor patios
and designated hotel /motel rooms. Will you probably vote

   

1. for – 55%
2. against 34%
3. undecided 11%

When the language of two ballot measures conflict or are mutually exclusive, the measure recieving the higher vote total becomes law. It will be a very narrow thing, but with the sheer amount of money and the very canny direct mail appeal of the Prop 206 committee, it could easily pull ahead by election day.

   

3.
Proposition 105 would amend the Arizona Constitution to allow 43,000
acres of urban state trust land designated for conservation to be sold
to counties, cities and towns. It also requires the Legislature to
develop a method for protecting 400,000 acres of trust land for
conservation purposes. Will you probably vote

   

1. for – 36%
2. against 34%
3. undecided 30%

   

4.
Proposition 106 would amend the Arizona Constitution to protect 694,000
acres of state trust land from development and r equire the state to
cooperate with local communities on state trust land planning . It also
would create a seven-member board of trustees appointed by the governor
to oversee the sale and management of state trust lands. Will you
probably vote

   

1. for – 49%
2. against 21%
3. undecided 30%

It appears that the real reform initiative is doing considerably better than the astroturfed referendum. This is due in large part to the heavy financial backing conservation groups and public school unions have given the initiative. With such a large number of undecideds, of course, anything might happen.

   

5.
As an incentive to increase voter turnout, Proposition 200 would enter
people who vote in the primary or general election every two years into
a one-million-dollar state lottery. The money would come from unclaimed
lottery winnings. Will you probably vote

   

1. for – 40%
2. against 47%
3. undecided 13%

It looks like Dr. Osterloh’s latest brain-child is in trouble. Maybe it would have done better if the reward weren’t so easy to associate with gambling and crass materialism. Personally, I love the idea, but I can understand why some people have a gut level reaction that it cheapens the democratic process to mere greed and speculative whimsy. Better I think to make the prize less crass. Perhaps something of great financial value that can only be used for purposes universally seen as a social good. With 1 million cash, people can do anything with it, like excessive consumerism, or even illegal or unethical transactions. If instead we were to award a retirement annuity it would seem more appropriate. Or a scholarship fund that the voter can use to send their kids and those of others to school. Or free healthcare for life. Such prizes would also have the effect of highlighting the inquity in the mere fact that such things are no already rights as taxpaying citizens.

   

6.
Proposition 202 would raise the minimum wage in Arizona from $5.15 to
$6.75 per hour starting in 2007. Will you probably vote

   

1. for – 77%
2. against 16%
3. undecided 7%

Apparently the most serious question about this measure in most people’s minds is, "What took you so damn long to ask us?"

   

7.
Proposition 203 would add an additional 80-cent tax to the price of a
pack of cigarettes to fund preschool programs, health screenings and
other services mainly for children living in poverty. Will you probably
vote

   

1. for – 62%
2. against 28%
3. undecided 10%

Tots vs. tabacco. It doesn’t take a brain surgeon to figure out how people will vote on that equation. The fact the mjor money is pushing the measure certainly helps, too.

   

8.
Proposition 204, would require that pregnant pigs and calves raised for
veal be given enough space in their pens to turn around, lie down and
be able to fully extend their limbs. Will you probably vote

   

1. for – 65%
2. against 16%
3. undecided 19%

Apparently, people are willing to pay a few additional cents per pound for pork and veal so that they can eat without feeling like moral lepers. Who knew?

I wish the poll had taken the electorate’s temperature on the entire slate of Propositions on this year’s ballot. If anyone knows of polling on the entire slate, please let me know in the comments.