‘Kochtopus’ push polling on Gov. Brewer’s Medicaid (AHCCCS) restoration plan

Posted by AzBlueMeanie:

I previously posted about the 'Kochtopus' astroturf campaign against Gov. Jan Brewer's Medicaid (AHCCCS) restoration plan.

This now includes push polling by the Colorado-based conservative polling firm Magellan Strategies commissioned by a "client who does not want to be identified."

A previous client of Magellan Strategies is the political consulting firm DC London, Inc., headed by GOP consultant Sean Noble. You remember him. Sean Noble also heads up the Center to Protect Patient Rights, an Arizona 501(c)(4) organization in the "Kochtopus." It was his organization which was the "dark money" conduit that laundered $11 million dollars to Americans for Responsible Leadership, an Arizona 501(c)(4) organization in the "Kochtopus," that California’s political watchdog agency said represented the largest case of campaign money laundering in state history. Sean Noble and campaign money laundering by the 'Kochtopus'.

It's a safe bet that the "client who does not want to be identified" is an operative from one of the tentacle organizations of the "Kochtopus."

The Arizona Capitol Times (subscription required) reported on the first push poll by Magellan Strategies on Wednesday. Dueling
polls reach different results on Medicaid expansion support:

The Magellan poll showed marginal support for the Medicaid plan, with
41 percent of respondents supporting the plan and 37 percent opposing it. The 4
percent margin of support fell just outside the poll’s 3.44 percent margin of
error. 

The auto-dial poll of 812 registered voters, which was conducted by
Colorado-based Magellan Strategies, also showed a majority of
Republicans opposing the expansion plan. A majority
also said they would be less likely to vote for a lawmaker who votes for
it. Sixty-three percent of Republican respondents, who made up 35
percent of the poll, said they would be less likely to reelect a legislator who
voted for the plan, while 72 percent of the GOP voters said they’d be
less likely to reelect a lawmaker who voted to fund the expansion with a new tax
on hospitals.

In a polling memo, David Flaherty of Magellan Strategies wrote that
Republicans who voted for expansion could make themselves vulnerable to a
primary challenge.

“If I was a Republican incumbent, I would be concerned as I navigate my
decision on the expansion of Medicaid, in whatever shape or form that may come
in,” Flaherty told the Arizona Capitol Times.

Flaherty said the client who commissioned the poll does not want to
be identified.

And here is the "push" in the poll — Obama Derangement Syndrome:

[T]he Magellan poll asked respondents whether they
supported Brewer’s plan, which it described as “the expansion of Medicaid in
order to implement the federal government’s health care system.”
A follow-up question asked if respondents support or oppose “the full
implementation of Obamacare.”

There was some fascinating polling done earlier this year which demonstrated widespread public support for several policies of the Obama administration when the question was asked just about the policy. In a follow-up question identifying the policy as being an Obama administration policy, positive responses dropped off substantially, almost all attributable to self-identified Republican respondents. Obama Derangement Syndrome can be used to skew poll results, which is what this push poll is designed to do.

The Arizona Capitol Times (subscription required) reported on the second push poll by Magellan Strategies on Thursday. Poll: GOP voters in key districts oppose AHCCCS expansion:

Republican primary voters in six GOP-controlled legislative districts largely
oppose Medicaid expansion and are likely to vote against any lawmaker who
supports it, according to a poll from Colorado-based Magellan Strategies.

The automated telephone survey of 718 voters who said they were Republicans
who planned to vote in next year’s primary election found that 51 percent said
they oppose Gov. Jan Brewer’s proposal to expand Medicaid coverage, while just
30 percent said they support the plan. Nineteen percent said they were unsure or
had no opinion.

The poll, which was conducted March 27 and 28, surveyed Republican voters in
Legislative Districts 13, 17, 18, 20, 25 and 28. A polling memo from
Magellan Strategies did not say how many of the 718 voters were
in each district.

Fifty-three percent of respondents said they would be less likely to re-elect
a legislator who voted to expand Medicaid coverage, with only 22 percent saying
they’d be more likely to re-elect a pro-expansion legislator. And 68 percent of
respondents said they would be less likely to re-elect a legislator who voted to
fund expansion with a new hospital tax, a key provision of Brewer’s plan that
would allow the state to expand the program without burdening taxpayers.

The numbers were especially bad for GOP lawmakers in Legislative District 13,
which runs from northern Yuma to the West Valley; Chandler-based Legislative
District 17; and Ahwatukee-based Legislative District 18. Seventy-eight percent
of Republican voters in LD13 and LD18 said they were less likely to reelect
pro-expansion lawmakers, and 76 percent in LD17 said the same.

LD25 Sen. Bob Worsley and LD28 Rep. Kate Brophy McGee are proponents of
Brewer’s plan who stood with the governor during a pro-expansion press
conference in March. LD20 Rep. Paul Boyer stood with Brewer as well, but has
since turned against the plan over concerns it could increase funding for
abortion providers.

Some GOP lawmakers in the other districts polled are viewed are potential
supporters of the expansion, as well.

However, the margins of error of the poll results in each of the legislative
districts are extremely high, making the results unreliable.

While the margin of error for the overall poll 3.65 percent, the margins for
the individual legislative districts, which have much smaller sample sizes,
ranged from +/- 8 percentage points  to +/- 11 percentage points, according
to the polling memo.

* * *

Additionally, the poll questions don’t mention several key elements of
Brewer’s expansion plan, such as the minimal cost to the state’s general fund,
the billions of dollars the federal government will give Arizona to expand
Medicaid or the number of people who would be covered under the Arizona Health
Care Cost Containment System. The question on the hospital tax did not mention
that most Arizona hospitals support the tax and that they would be barred from
passing the cost of the tax on to consumers.

Respondents were told that Brewer has proposed the expansion of Medicaid in
order to “fully implement the federal government’s health care system in 2014,”
and were asked if they “support or oppose the expansion of Medicaid in order to
implement the federal government’s health care system.”

Push polls are designed to garner headlines to move public opinion. If the lazy Arizona political media uses these push polls in headlines claiming "Arizonan's opposed to Governor's Medicaid expansion plan," they are not serious journalists, and are being irresponsible and unprofessional in "catapulting the propaganda" as George W. Bush once famously said.

This is part of an astroturf campaign by the "Kochtopus." Know thine enemy.