Mark Kelly leads the unelected senator, Martha McSally, in new poll

Arizona Public Media reports that Mark Kelly leads Martha McSally in new poll:

Democrat Mark Kelly leads Republican Martha McSally 46-41 in the latest poll by OH Predictive Insights.

The poll has a 4 point margin of error, and represents the first time either candidate’s lead has been outside the margin of error.

When you look at the polling numbers from individual counties, Mike Noble said the data becomes more interesting.

From the poll release:

“Both are former fighter pilots although if our latest poll is any indication – astronauts fly higher than pilots, ” said Mike Noble, Chief of Research and Managing Partner of Phoenix-based research company OH Predictive Insights. “We are still in August 2019 and the Arizona Senate race is already exciting – expect the numbers to start moving when these two fundraising juggernauts start spending heavy and hard.”

“Kelly is winning in Maricopa County by 9 points over McSally,” said Noble. [Roughly 6 out of every 10 likely statewide voters are in Maricopa County.]

The latest voter registration numbers from the Arizona Secretary of State’s office shows Republicans have a big advantage in voter registration in Maricopa County. [What is interesting is the fact that McSally is +2 in total favorability in Maricopa County although once the head-to-head matchup is injected she trails Kelly by 9-points in that region.]

In Pima County, Kelly’s lead in 14 points. In Pima County, Democrats lead Republicans in registration.

McSally has 95% name recognition, according to Noble. Kelly is lagging in that area with a third of those polled still not knowing who he is. [McSally is defined and Kelly still has room to grow.]

Even though Election Day is more than a year away, campaigns can still learn a great deal from the poll.

“Arizona is actually a battleground state for the presidential election, which really has not been the case historically,” said Noble.

The race could also determine control of the Senate, according to Noble.

He also pointed out that an economic downturn could have a large influence on the outcome of Arizona’s senate race.

He also said when his data is combined with a look at precinct-level election results from the 2018 senate election it sends a message.

“Basically, where the GOP is hurting right now is among independent voters, among suburban voters and then also Hispanics and 18 to 34-year-olds,” Noble said.

Arizona’s 2018 senate election was the most expensive race in state history. It was the fourth-most expensive race in the nation.