Mike O’Neil: A Great Arizona Post-Primary Rundown Podcast Forecast

I like pollster Mike O’Neil’s Arizona weekly public-policy radio show out of Phoenix, “The Think Tank“. I listen via podcast often and I especially enjoyed his most recent episode in which he spoke with three Republican-leaning political consultants who all predicted Democratic victories in Arizona this general election.

It’s a fairly brief show, so I embedded it above for you to listen, if you like, but the takeaway is this:

All three felt that Biden/Harris and Mark Kelly state-wide victories are likely, though possibly much narrower than current polling would indicate.

All three also felt that Democratic parity in one of the state’s legislative chambers is all but certain, at minimum. An outright majority in the state House is very likely. A majority, or parity, in the state Senate is also a good bet. They highlighted Coral Evans, Felicia French, and Christine Marsh, as races of special interest. I’m curious to know what state legislative races you all are watching as likely turnovers. Please leave comments with your thoughts.

All three felt that Rep. David Schweikert in CD6 is extremely vulnerable in multiple dimensions and that Hiral Tipirneni is heavily favored to win the district for Dems.

Keep in mind these are Republican-leaning consultants. Admitting these likelihoods was clearly a little bit painful for them, and they won’t be winning any friends in the GOP with these admissions.

A more optimistic (or perhaps just less reluctant) opinion on the matter is that there are a lot of races that are winnable this year and politics could be extremely fluid everywhere, but especially in Arizona, this electoral season.

It is certain that Arizona is a swing state this Presidential election, but it is also quite possible that we play the role of a tipping point state, potentially clenching the electoral college for either side. But it’s most likely those votes will go to Biden/Harris. This fact underlines how vitally important it is for Arizonans, especially Dems and Others, to ensure that they vote in the upcoming general election, and vote all the way down the ballot.

They didn’t touch on local races at all, but I’m optimistic all the way to the bottom of the ballot, with county and city-level elections swinging strongly in Democratic favor this year in many formerly Republican jurisdictions. Are there seats in your local jurisdictions that you are looking at as likely party turnovers this year?