More on the outlier Rasmussen Reports polls

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Posted by AzBlueMeanie:

Memo to the media: just stop publishing Rasmussen Reports press releases about their polls. It constitutes journalistic malpractice at this point. As I have reported earlier, Rasmussen Reports are an outlier poll of questionable credibility.

Daily Kos summarizes the latest amazing polling by Rasmussen Reports:

After revelations broke that Blumenthal had, that one time, accidentally exaggerated his military service, Rasmussen rushed out a poll showing a Democratic cataclysm in Connecticut:

Dick Blumenthal (D) 48
Linda McMahon (R) 45

Three polls followed, including ours, showing that Blumenthal had, actually, lost no support, and still had a massive lead.

Quinnipiac: 56-31
Greenberg: 55-40
R2K for us: 52-33

His narrative-setting efforts busted and discredited, Rasmussen soon rushed out another poll showing that, oh well, maybe Bluementhal still leads big after all:

Dick Blumenthal (D) 56
Linda McMahon (R) 33

After the Kentucky primaries, with GOP nominee Rand Paul under fire for opposing the Civil Rights Act (among other things), Rasmussen rushed out a poll that showed Paul winning by a gazillion:

Rand Paul (R) 59
Jack Conway (D) 34

Wow! 25 points? That was odd. Our own pre- and post-primary polling showed Paul holding stead. Other polling soon followed showing that yes, Paul had a lead, but it was close:

R2K for us: 44-41
SurveyUSA: 51-45

His narrative-setting efforts busted and discredited, Rasmussen soon rushed out another poll showing that, oh well, maybe this is a tight race after all:

Rand Paul (R) 49
Jack Conway (D) 41

Remember, Rasmussen has two modes — the narrative setting mode, which he's used to great effect this year to fuel the "Democrats are doomed" narrative, and the "get it right" mode he uses the closer we get to the actual election. Well, we're not that close to November yet, but apparently he felt threatened by having such massive outliers vis a vis other pollsters. So he rushed new polling more in line with the composite polling trendlines.

It's kind of hard to set narratives when you become a laughing stock in the political world.

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4 thoughts on “More on the outlier Rasmussen Reports polls”

  1. Why do people confuse the word “lose” as “loose?”

    Please spell correctly.

  2. Right. The big, bad (and fictional) “librul” media is out to get poor wittle Rand Paul. All the fool had to say was “of course I support the Civil Rights Act, discrimination is inconsistent with American values.” But noooo… Not ready for prime time.

    The Republican dominated Kentucky Senate adopted a resolution this past week declaring “any form of discrimination to be inconsistent with American values.” http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/05/31/rand-paul-remarks-lead-ke_n_595215.html

    Said Louisville Democratic Sen. Gerald Neal, Kentucky’s only black state senator, Paul’s “extreme belief” had made Kentucky “a laughingstock.” Maybe not Kentucky, but definitely Rand Paul.

  3. Oh pish-aw. Everybody knows that Rand Paul is going to loose now that the media has given him more media coverage for a week than ever before.

    Ummm, why does that sound counterintuitive…

  4. Rasmussen’s poll in KY was right after the primary when, briefly, the media was crowning him king. Just BEFORE the media feeding frenzy started following his opponent’s lie that he wanted to repeal the civil rights act (which likely is why Maddow grilled him on that subject, not an issue he had been thinking about, at all.)

    In any event, I thought even at the time that that was an unusual time to poll, because it just got the primary bump. However, here is intrade on the subject: http://data.intrade.com/graphing/jsp/closingPricesForm.jsp?tradeURL=https://www.intrade.com&contractId=664428

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