My Hesitant 2020 Election Prediction: 1980 Upside Down

I’ve had this hunch for months, but have held off going public with it, for fear of doing anything to contribute to a feeling of overconfidence. I suspect others have had the same feeling. I even fought against being overconfident myself. I increased my level of contributions several hundred percent. I spent time canvassing, a task I really don’t care to take on (but appreciate beyond measure those who do). I don’t think it possible that this post could cause a reader not to bother voting. And if an activist who otherwise would be phone banking today decides based on the words of this non-expert that it’s not necessary, shame on you.

So, hopefully, we’ve reached the point where the only downside of making a prediction is being wrong, so here goes.

The election that had dynamics most similar to this one is 1980, only with the positions of the parties reversed. We had a president who’d failed (albeit in a far more pardonable way) to confront a crisis effectively. As Americans headed to the polls in 1980, 52 hostages had been held for about a year. A rescue attempt had failed miserably, and negotiations had not yet succeeded. Unlike Trump in the face of the Covid-19 crisis, Carter recognized the hostage situation as the crisis it was. Unlike Trump, he dedicated himself to finding a solution. Nonetheless, he did not overcome the crisis prior to election day. Ditto, of course, for Trump’s handling of Covid-19.

The 1980 election appeared close, until it wasn’t. In the end, Carter lost all but six states. The Democrats lost a slew of Senate seats, several held by icons who had served for decades. Republicans took control of the Senate for the first time in my then 24-year long life. It was ugly.

Seems the same thing is happening in 2020, only with the Republicans on the losing end. In 1980, votes broke for Reagan and down ballot Republicans so late that the polls didn’t fully capture the movement. That happened in 2016 in Trump’s favor. The polls were wrong, but an equally significant factor was that undecided voters broke heavily for Trump in the waning days of the campaign.

I don’t comprehend how a voter could be undecided at this point in time. But undecided voters do exist. Could they break overwhelmingly for Trump, as they did in 2016? Possibly, but not likely. The tendency is to break away from the better-known quantity.

Even though only two or three percent of voters are undecided, a substantial break in Biden’s favor moves Biden very close to a double-digit national win, which is considered a landslide.

There are other possible dynamics that could move the race into landslide territory. Here are a few:

The possibility of a polling error is discussed endlessly. But the discussion almost always focuses on the possible error being an overstatement of Biden’s support. An error understating Biden’s support is at least equally likely. I’d argue that it’s somewhat more likely. Pollsters took steps after 2016 to adjust their polling methods to avoid repeating the mistake they made. The tendency in these situations, is to over-correct, not under-correct. If the pollsters over-corrected for 2016, Biden likely is doing better than the polls are telling us.

The impact of the change in the electorate may not be fully taken into account. There is a block of voters age 18 to 22 who did not vote in 2016. They favor Biden and have been accounted for by those analyzing the electorate. But what about the block of voters who won’t be voting this time around who did vote in 2016 – i.e., those (mostly elderly) voters who died in the past four years. That group undoubtedly favored Trump. Their absence will hurt him. Has that been fully taken into account? It’s a factor I’ve not seen mentioned, perhaps because it’s ghoulish to do so.

The polls mostly are taken of likely voters. Thing is, a whole bunch of “unlikely voters” are voting this time around. Who do those voters favor?

One very reliable factor in races involving incumbent presidents is the incumbent’s approval rating. It tends to line up with their election day vote percentages. 2020 seems to follow that pattern. Trump’s approval rating has been stuck in the low 40’s. Similarly, in the national polls, he is hovering near 43 percent. That could mean those undecided voters will break for Biden, giving him a double-digit national win.

On top of those objective factors, there are common sense and anecdotal factors. The signage in my Phoenix suburban neighborhood is 180 degrees from what it was four years ago. You have to dig deep to find voters who supported Clinton in 2016 but support Trump this year. But to find voters who supported Trump in 2016 but Biden this time around you only need scratch the surface.

If I’m remotely correct about all this, the dynamic won’t be limited to the top of the ballot. Senate seats in AZ, CO, NC and ME almost certainly will flip. But I don’t think it will end there. There are two winnable races in GA and additional winnable races in SC, IA, MT, KS, and AK. Even Texas is a possible Senate flip, albeit less so than the other states I mentioned. I see the Democrats holding 52 or more Senate seats after the dust settles (which may take a while).

Could I be wrong? Yeah, easily. In 1980, Carter was not attempting to suppress the vote that opposed him, with the possible support of a corrupt judiciary hand-picked by him with that possibility in mind. In that regard, we’re sailing uncharted waters. We’ve not had an election in which powerful forces were hell bent on undermining our democratic process.

Also, while I think Carter’s overall level of support in 1980 was about the same as Trump’s level of support today, it didn’t include an over-energized, lunatic-fringe element showing up armed at polling locations to intimidate black and brown voters. There’s no way to predict how significantly that will affect the outcome.

Hence the hesitation in making a prediction on this one. Still, I like to go on the record beforehand. I love getting it right, and I don’t mind admitting mistakes.

Use the comment thread to make your own predictions, or to tell me why I’m off base.