‘Never Kevin’ McCarthy Will Not Be Elected Speaker Of The House On The First Ballot Today

Update to AZ Rep. Andy Biggs To Challenge Kevin McCarthy For Speaker And To Divide The GQP.

It increasingly appears that “Traitor” Kevin McCarthy, the soulless leader of the 147 Republican lawmakers who still objected to the election results even after the Capitol attack on January 6, does not have the votes to be elected Speaker of the House today, even after groveling before his fellow Sedition Party insurrectionists and conceding to their every demand like the weak and pathetic worm of a man that he is.

There is one thing on which all Americans can agree: Kevin McCarthy should NEVER be Speaker of the House.

Steve Benen had a good summary yesterday of where things stand ahead of today’s vote. With one day to go, McCarthy is still scrambling for GOP support:

It was exactly 100 years ago when the House of Representatives last failed to elect a House speaker on the first ballot. By all appearances, we’re likely to see this rare occurrence happen again tomorrow. The New York Times reported over the weekend:

The election of the House speaker on the floor of the chamber is usually a largely ceremonial exercise devoid of surprises. But if Representative Kevin McCarthy of California, the Republican leader, is unable to put down a rebellion among a group of hard-right lawmakers before the vote on Tuesday, the result could be a whirl of chaos not seen on the House floor in a century. Mr. McCarthy has pledged to fight for the speakership on the House floor until the very end, even if it requires lawmakers to vote more than once.

This a story with several moving parts, so let’s flesh out what’s up.

Wasn’t it a foregone conclusion that McCarthy would become speaker?

He certainly thought so. McCarthy has been the House Republicans’ leader for the last four years, and when the GOP won just enough seats in the midterm elections to claim a majority, he expected to get a promotion.

And now that promotion is in jeopardy?

Evidently so. Almost immediately after the midterms, a small-but-significant conservative contingent within the House Republican conference said McCarthy simply wasn’t a reliable enough ally, and the members of the faction got to work undermining him.

How many votes does McCarthy need?

That’s a little trickier than you might assume. There are 434 members of the House — Rep. Donald McEachin passed away after the midterms — and to get elected speaker, someone needs a majority. As a matter of arithmetic, that suggests McCarthy — or anyone else vying for the job — would need 218 votes.

But it might become more complicated than that. If one member were to miss the vote for any reason, the next speaker would need a majority of 433. If another member were to vote “present,” the next speaker would need a majority of 432, and so on.

Simply Stated: He needs a majority of members present and voting.

How big is the GOP’s anti-McCarthy contingent?

The incumbent minority leader can lose no more than four of his own members, and headed into the holidays, five House Republicans — Arizona’s Andy Biggs, Florida’s Matt Gaetz, Virginia’s Bob Good, South Carolina’s Ralph Norman, and Montana’s Matthew Rosendale — said they’ll oppose McCarthy’s bid. Complicating matters, the group declared that they intend to vote as a bloc, preventing party leaders from trying to pick them off, one by one.

Making matters worse for McCarthy is the faction appears to be growing, not shrinking. Yesterday, a group of nine conservatives released a written statement saying they’d heard the GOP leader’s latest pitch — and it wasn’t good enough for them. Note, these nine skeptics are on top of the five aforementioned “Never Kevin” members.

The Math: This makes 14 known Republicans voting no on the first ballot. C-Span junkies should pop some popcorn and sit back and enjoy the show to follow.

What do McCarthy’s detractors want?

Many simply want a different leader, but for others, there’s a substantive dimension to this.

At the start of every Congress, the House adopts a package of procedural rules that govern how the chamber will operate for the next two years. The package is generally overlooked, but far-right Republicans have focused heavily on it in recent weeks, seeing it as a key vehicle to give them more power.

With this in mind, McCarthy’s intra-party opponents have made several demands, including an emphasis on something called the motion to vacate the chair.

I have no idea what that means.

In practical terms, the motion to vacate the chair allows House members to oust their own sitting speaker — or at least try to — by way of a vote that effectively serves as a no-confidence vote. McCarthy said for weeks that he wouldn’t give in on this point, because he didn’t want that sword hanging over his head for the next two years, putting him in constant jeopardy.

I get the sense there’s a “but” coming.

But yesterday, McCarthy caved, telling his members that he now supports a new rule that would empower five of his own members to force a no-confidence in their leader.

Did that work?

Apparently not. None of the five “Never Kevin” members has budged, and the nine additional skeptics issued their letter after McCarthy endorsed changes that would weaken him.

Politico added this morning, “We caught up Sunday with one of the GOP fence-sitters, a member who has been in the room for these negotiations. And he told us that some of these undecided members won’t support McCarthy — even if he gives them everything they want.“

So, is McCarthy a goner?

It’s a little too soon to say for sure, though his odds of success went from bad to worse over the weekend. If the vote were right now, McCarthy would definitely fall short of the support he needs, but funny things can happen on Capitol Hill over the course of 24 hours, and the would-be speaker is so desperate, there’s no telling what he might offer his Republican detractors, or how they might respond.

That said, Punchbowl News reported this morning that even McCarthy’s close allies privately worry that it’s “hard to see a path” for him, at least as things currently stand.

As he begs for votes, isn’t McCarthy undermining his own capacity to lead?

Yes. He’s creating conditions in which he’d be a weak speaker, but he’s doing it anyway, apparently because he values the title more than he values his capacity to lead the institution.

Does the party have a plan B?

Not really. Biggs is running for the gavel, but no one seriously believes he’ll become speaker. Roll Call reported late last week, however, on a provocative possibility: “The plan, which would only be deployed if the speaker’s election went to multiple ballots with no one budging, would be for a significant bloc of Republicans to work with Democrats to nominate retiring Michigan GOP Rep. Fred Upton for speaker. … The member said the long-shot effort to elect Upton would involve giving Democrats concessions on House rules, like subpoena powers for committees, and other assurances Republicans probably ideally don’t want to grant.”

Fred Upton? Really? I was hoping for the revenge of “Crying” John Boehner. Major disappointment.

Is this scenario realistic?

It seems like a stretch, but at this point, anything’s possible.

Aside from the palace intrigue, why should folks care about this?

Because the public needs a functioning House — and ideally, a majority party capable of governing. If the GOP struggles to elect a speaker, it would represent a new level of Republican chaos.

Brendan Buck, a consultant who previously worked for Republican Speakers Paul Ryan and John Boehner, wrote in The New York Times today, “If Republicans are unable to muster the votes for a speaker, it will make very clear from the outset they cannot be counted on to fulfill the body’s basic responsibilities.”

Let’s say McCarthy comes up short [today]. Then what?

That would be the first ballot, making a second ballot necessary. If no one secures a majority on the second ballot, either, then there’d be a third, and so on.

McCarthy has said he intends to keep trying, as long as it takes, but no one can say with confidence how long his own allies will remain behind him. It seems likely that at some point, if McCarthy’s GOP opponents won’t budge, rank-and-file Republicans will start taking alternative solutions more seriously.

Anything else?

Politico had a good report a few weeks ago, noting that votes for speaker happen before the rules are adopted, “meaning the vote operates outside of the chamber’s standard operating procedures.” In other words, the House approves a set of rules as to how the chamber will function at the start of a new Congress, but that vote happens after the House speaker is chosen.

If members struggle to choose a speaker, the rules governing the House can’t be approved, and the institution is simply stuck until the matter is resolved.

Steve Benen expands on this point  in a follow-up post today. GOP’s Kevin McCarthy prepares for fateful vote on bid for speaker (excerpt):

Politico reported Monday night:

McCarthy met briefly with Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), one of his most ardent opponents, as well as Reps. Scott Perry (R-Pa.) and Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.), neither of whom have committed to voting for the California Republican. But while Gaetz quipped heading into the meeting that they could be on “the verge of a New Year’s miracle,” he said afterward that the talk was “brief and productive” — and, critically, that he and five others are still “no” votes.

A Washington Post report added soon after, “McCarthy met with key lawmakers across the ideological spectrum Monday evening to walk through what to expect Tuesday. No breakthrough occurred, as the holdouts emerged reiterating to reporters that they were still against his candidacy.”

Much of the public has probably grown accustomed to periodic drama on Capitol Hill, but this is a qualitatively different kind of story: Since the Civil War, the House of Representatives has elected a new speaker on the first ballot in every instance except one, and that exception was 100 years ago.

Under normal circumstances, the speaker for the next Congress is chosen several weeks in advance, and the first day of the new session is largely ceremonial — with the chamber’s leader swearing in his or her colleagues, while preparing to advance a legislative agenda.

These are not normal circumstances. As of this minute, McCarthy, facing a stubborn group of opponents from his own party, still doesn’t have the votes necessary to prevail.

In fact, by most measures, he’s not especially close. To earn the speaker’s gavel, the House Republican can lose no more than four of his own members. As things stand, McCarthy is facing at least five firm “no” votes, and there are roughly 10 additional skeptics who’ve put his leadership bid in doubt.

It would be an overstatement to say McCarthy’s fate is sealed. It’s not. He’s already made all kinds of concessions in the hopes of winning over far-right detractors — specifically with a rules package that would weaken his position in the new Congress — and in the coming hours, the incumbent GOP leader will no doubt continue to negotiate in desperation. He might find the formula to convince his Republican critics to change their minds.

But as Tuesday gets underway, McCarthy simply isn’t where he wants to be. In fact, things appear to be getting worse, not better: Rep. Scott Perry of Pennsylvania, the chair of the right-wing Freedom [sic] Caucus [- more accurately the GQO Fascist Caucus -]  issued a written statement this morning that read in part, “Kevin McCarthy had an opportunity to be Speaker of the House. He rejected it.”

The result is a scenario wholly unfamiliar to American political observers: an election for speaker that will take more than one ballot.

A separate Washington Post report described it as “an amazing moment.”

Most parties begin their House majorities basking in the ceremonial niceties afforded by their November victories while building momentum for their policy and political agendas. House Republicans are starting their House takeover with an ugly street fight that is deepening the divide among the conference and raises questions about how they’ll be able to govern over the next two years.

And that’s ultimately why I find this so fascinating. Whether McCarthy succeeds in advancing his ambitions is of interest, but far more important is the state of the Republican Party, the power of its most radical members, its difficulties in functioning as a constructive entity, and its inability to govern.

What’s more, since the election for speaker is the first necessary step, the House itself will not be able to function — at all — until this matter is resolved. New members can’t even be sworn in until the chamber chooses a leader.

I will reiterate: There is no new Congress until a Speaker is elected and the rules by which the new Congress will operate have been adopted. And new members are not full members of Congress until they are officially sworn in.

The House clerk will begin the proceedings at noon eastern. If, on the first try, no one gets a majority for the first time in 100 years, members will prepare to try again on a second ballot.

“Boss” Nancy Pelosi only lost one procedural vote during her stints as Speaker of the House, and she ultimately won that vote. “Traitor” Kevin McCarthy is so weak and pathetic that he cannot even convince his fellow insurrectionists in the Sedition Party to vote for him to be Speaker of the House.

Until we have a new Speaker, we do not have a new Congress which can do any business. The GQP is the party of chaos and disfunction.