KAET/Cronkite Poll on Statewide Races

This statewide poll of 882 high probability (i.e., cast votes in 3 out of 4 past state-wide elections) registered voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent. The sample population was distributed by sex, age, party preference, and county of residence to reflect overall registered voter population of the state.

• Governor: 

Question wording: "Democratic Governor Janet Napolitano is running for re-election against
Republican Len Munsil and Libertarian Barry Hess. If the election were
being held today, will you probably vote for:"

Democrat Janet Napolitano, 64 percent;

Republican
Len Munsil. 28 percent;

Libertarian Barry Hess, 2 percent;

don’t know, 6
percent.

Poll Director Dr. Bruce Merrill says, “Governor Napolitano is leading because she is winning the party
crossover battle, with 37 percent of the Republicans saying they will
vote for Napolitano while only 4 percent of the Democrats are
supporting Munsil. Also, she has almost as much support in Maricopa
County at 62 percent as she does in heavily Democratic Pima County with
67 percent. Finally she is leading among both male (58 percent to 32
percent) and female (70 percent to 24 percent) voters."

Janet’s can o’ whupp ass is wide open. Rock on, baby!

• U.S. Senator:

Question wording: "Republican U.S. Senator Jon Kyl is running for re-election this fall
against former Democratic state chairman Jim Pederson and Libertarian
Richard Mack. If the election were being held today, would you probably
vote for:"

Republican Jon Kyl, 49 percent;

Democrat Jim Pederson, 38 percent;

Libertarian Richard Mack, 2 percent;

don’t know, 11 percent.

Kyl may be back under 50% and there are still a relatively large number of undecideds remaining. Movement ofr Pederson has been incremental and slow. The major question is whether Pederson can shake up the race in time to overtake Kyl before the election. He needs to swing for the fences with harder-hitting issues, such as the Iraq war, the neo-con agenda, and his support of torture and the destruction of the right of Americans to be free of arbitrary and permanent detention without access to the courts. I mean, really, if you can beat an opponent who is advocating war crimes, when can yo win?

Poll director Dr. Bruce Merrill attributes Kyl’s lead to three factors: “First, he is winning the party
crossover battle. While 19 percent of registered Democrats are
supporting Kyl, only 10 percent of the Republicans are defecting to
Pederson. Second, Pederson is only splitting the vote with Kyl in
heavily Democratic Pima County and third, the poll found men are
supporting Kyl over Pederson 55 percent to 35 percent while women are
splitting their vote evenly between the two candidates.”
   

• Secretary of State:

Question wording: "In the race for Secretary of State, Republican Jan Brewer will face
Democrat Israel Torres and Libertarian Ernie Hancock. If the election
were being held today, would you probably vote for:"

Republican Jan Brewer, 46 percent;

Democrat Israel Torres, 22 percent;

Libertarian Ernest Hancock, 4
percent;

don’t know, 28 percent.

More undecideds than votes for Torres. Either a great opportunity, or a missed one. Torres needs to link Brewer and deliberate manipulation of the electoral system to disenfranchise voters and willful and partisan obstruction of the voters’ will. Only one things matters in this race: integrity. And Brewer hasn’t got any as demostrated by her well below majority status, and her reputedly very high negatives. One thing is sure, unless Napolitano resigns, Brewer will never be Governor.

• Attorney General:

Question wording: "In the race for Attorney General, will you probably vote for Democrat Terry Goddard or Republican Bill Montgomery?"

Democrat Terry Goddard, 58 percent;

Republican Bill Montgomery, 29 percent;

don’t know, 13 percent.

Another can of whuppass done been wasted. Goddard is well above a majority. Even converting every undecided for Montgomery makes this a 16 point blow out. Goddard is sitting pretty for 2010.

• Superintendent of Public Instruction:

Question wording: "In the race for Superintendent of Public Instruction, will you probably
vote for Republican Tom Horne or Democrat Jason Williams?"

Republican Tom Horne, 42 percent;

Democrat Jason Williams,  34 percent; 

don’t know, 24 percent.

This race is wide open. Horne is even further under 50%  than Brewer, and there are more than enough pursuadables for Jason to win. You want to make a big difference in Arizona elections this year? Put your money on Jason. Seriously, he’s traditionally financed in this race, and needs your donations to stick it to Horne.

• State Treasurer:

Question wording: "For State Treasurer, will you probably vote for Republican Dean Martin or Democrat Rano Singh?"

Republican Dean Martin, 40 percent;

Democrat Rano Singh, 26 percent;

don’t know, 34 percent.

Another down-ticket race most people don’t know crap about. All corruption all the time should be Rano’s refrain. There are more persuadables than votes in the Dem column, but that could change with an appealing candidate like Rano.